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Information Page of SAS Organisation


Institute of Economic Research

International Projects

On empirics of illicit capital flows

Empíria nelegitímnych tokov kapitálu

Duration: 1. 1. 2024 - 31. 12. 2025
Evidence number:SAS-DAAD-2023-03
Program: Bilaterálne - iné
Project leader: Ing. Širaňová Mária MA., PhD.
Annotation:Volume of illicit financial flows has been steadily increasing over the last decade bringing about severe socio-economic consequences for countries affected (GFI, 2017). While it was historically believed that the IFFs target predominantly low-income economies with insufficient quality of institutions, low public trust and underdeveloped financial markets (Ajayi and Ndikumana, 2014), recent experience has also highlighted the role of wealthy individuals and multinational companies residing in developed countries who are often involved in sophisticated schemes aimed at transferring capital outside official oversight (Damgaard et al., 2018). The United Nations has recently (2015) recognized the threat posed by lack of information surrounding the IFFs problem by underscoring the importance of reduction of IFFs as one of the priorities put forward in its 2030 Agenda. The research team would like to contribute to this important topic in the following way. The proposed project consists of two working packages that are interrelated by the pressing issue of illicit financial flows. Both packages strongly rely on the research expertise of members of the Slovak and German teams. The topic of financial innovations and behavioral factors affecting the crypto markets has been at the forefront of research conducted by members the German team for already a longer period of time. The strong expertise of Slovak team members in the area of illicit financial flows and exchange rate modelling is a perfect fit as many of the illicit financial flows nowadays take upon a form of digital transactions using cryptocurrencies as a conduit. Last, the proposed research topics not only reflect upon the most recent trends in the field of financial innovations and financial stability, but the research outcomes can be of high relevance also for relevant policymakers (e.g., central bankers, regulators).

GLITSS - Globalization, Illicit Trade, Sustainability and Security

Globalization, Illicit Trade, Sustainability and Security

Duration: 14. 10. 2022 - 13. 10. 2026
Evidence number:COST Action 21133
Program: COST
Project leader: Ing. Širaňová Mária MA., PhD.


PlatfoRm OF policy Evaluation community for improvED EU policies and Better ACKnow-ledgement

Duration: 18. 10. 2021 - 17. 10. 2025
Evidence number:CA20112
Program: COST
Project leader: Mgr. Štefánik Miroslav PhD.

HiTEc - CA21163 - Text, functional and other high-dimensional data in econometrics: New models, methods, applications (HiTEc)

Textové, funkčné a iné viac dimenzionálne dáta v ekonometrií: Nové modely, metódy a aplikácie

Duration: 10. 10. 2022 - 9. 10. 2026
Evidence number:COST Action 21163
Program: COST
Project leader: Mgr. Štefánik Miroslav PhD.


The Millennium Project

Duration: 1. 1. 1986 -
Program: Multilaterálne - iné
Project leader: Ing. Klinec Ivan

The role of the socio-economic partners in skills strategies for a just green transition: a regional perspective

Úloha socioekonomických partnerov v stratégiách zručností pre spravodlivú zelenú transformáciu: regionálna perspektíva

Duration: 10. 3. 2023 - 10. 2. 2025
Evidence number:CED.892-AO/DVS/RCDCRLSALVA/Regions_Just_Skills_Strategies/007/22
Program: Multilaterálne - iné
Project leader: Ing. Hvozdíková Veronika PhD.
Project web page:https://ekonom.sav.sk/sk/projekty/uloha-socioekonomickych-partnerov-v-strategiach-zrucnosti-pre-spravodlivu-zelenu-transformaciu-regionalna-perspektiva-p216

Increasing Work Prospects of NEETs through capacity building and improved policy measures

Zlepšovanie pracovných vyhliadok NEET populácie pomocou budovania kapacít a zlepšených opatrení politík

Duration: 1. 3. 2023 - 31. 5. 2027
Evidence number:#atWork4NEETs
Program: Bilaterálne - iné
Project leader: Mgr. Štefánik Miroslav PhD.

National Projects

AMaLeM - Applying machine learning methods to support labour market policy making

Aplikácie metód strojového učenia na podporu tvorby politík trhu práce

Duration: 1. 7. 2022 - 30. 6. 2026
Evidence number:APVV-21-0360
Program: APVV
Project leader: Mgr. Štefánik Miroslav PhD.
Annotation:The project's central aim is to explore new options opened by the recent advancement of machine learning (ML) research. We consider two suitable data applications of ML techniques: i. impact evaluation of active labour market policies (ALMP) using administrative data of registered job seekers, ii online job search data analysis. Members of the research team have experience in both these data contexts, documented by publications, projects participation, and underlined by the interest of external project partners: Institute of Financial Policy (IFP) and an online job-advertisement company - Profesia. Under the first objective, we plan to apply ML techniques in the impact evaluation of Slovak ALMPs. For this purpose, in cooperation with IFP, we will develop a cleaned and documented evaluation dataset. The annually updated evaluation dataset will serve as a base in generating particular evaluation studies. Particular evaluation studies will benefit from a methodological activity focused on adjusting and applying new ML techniques for the Slovak data context. In this respect, we can build on the current cooperation of the research team. The project's second objective aims to explore the potential of big, online data in forecasting socio-economic development. More specifically, Profesia is interested in utilising the information on the total number of registered job vacancy postings in predicting labour market indicators, such as the unemployment rate or the total employment. We plan to propose the most favourable design of such a forecasting model. Moreover, we explore additional, freely available online data sources (e.g. Google search trends) and their potential in improving the prediction. Finally, having access to online job vacancy data, we aim to explore their further utilisation in social research. Building on an already rich list of studies using data collected by Profesia, we extend our interest more in the depth of the content of the online job vacancy postings.
Project web page:http://www.lmevidence.sav.sk/

Distributional Effects of Misreporting in International Trade in Services

Distribučné dopady fiktívnej fakturácie v medzinárodnom obchode so službami

Duration: 1. 1. 2024 - 31. 12. 2026
Evidence number:VEGA 2/0165/24
Program: VEGA
Project leader: doc. Ing. König Brian PhD.
Annotation:The service sector and its role in international trade have experienced significant growth in recent years. International trade in services has become one of the main sources of economic growth and it represents a significant source of competitiveness for companies. However, international trade is often used as a means of illicit financial flows through trade misinvoicing. The main objective of the project is to obtain estimates of illicit financial flows that originate due to the misreporting in international trade in services and to empirically investigate the effect of these illicit financial flows on income inequality. The project will rely on two key approaches to estimate volumes of misreporting in international trade in services for a global sample of countries: An approach based on the analysis of different reported values in international trade on the importer and exporter side, and an approach based on the analysis of the unexplained volume of international trade through the gravity model.

FinCyc - Financial cycle: design, modelling and forecasting within machine learning framework

Finančný cyklus: tvorba, modelovanie a predikcie v prostredí strojového učenia

Duration: 1. 7. 2023 - 31. 12. 2026
Evidence number:APVV-22-0472
Program: APVV
Project leader: prof. Ing. Lyócsa Štefan PhD.
Annotation:Financial instability is associated with periods when businesses find it difficult to access capital, the investment is constrained, and confidence among economic agents, including households, is falling, forcing them to make significant adjustments to their current and future budgets. The peak and subsequent bust of the financial cycle is associated with such periods of financial instability. The financial cycle thus captures changes in the behaviour of economic agents, in particular changes in risk appetite. The way the financial cycle is estimated should reflect the specificities of individual financial systems, leading policy makers to demand tailor-made solutions for each country. The main objective of the proposed applied research project is to propose new financial cycle indicators that will be used to monitor and predict future risks for financial stability in Slovakia. Our solution will provide the beneficiary with several new financial cycle indicators, prediction models based on machine learning and estimates of the most important factors influencing the future development of the financial cycle. The proposed solution should provide a decision support system that is both beneficial for the financial sector but also has the ambition to contribute to the debate on future macroprudential policy measures.

Evaluation the dynamics and nature of changes in the Slovak economy in a rapidly changing external environment

Hodnotenie dynamiky a charakteru zmien v slovenskej ekonomike v prudko sa meniacom externom prostredí

Duration: 1. 1. 2023 - 31. 12. 2026
Evidence number:VEGA 2/0042/23
Program: VEGA
Project leader: Ing. Jeck Tomáš PhD.
Annotation:The Slovak economy has recently been exposed to unprecedented external shocks that fundamentally affect its current and future development. The effects of the pandemic and the war conflict in Ukraine have triggered the need to respond to the new reality at the Slovak and European level. The problem of stagnating productivity and the loss of traditional competitiveness (in the form of low unit labour costs) in the post-Covid era calls for a new understanding of economic policy that better links the promotion of productivity with human development. In this context, new challenges arise for public policies, particularly in the areas of the labour market (demographic challenges, migration), external economic relations, public budgets, science, research and innovation, not only domestically but also in relation to European policies and continued integration. The project is therefore aimed at exploring the dynamics and nature of these changes in the Slovak economy in a rapidly changing external environment.

Hybrid modelling system for regional policy evaluation: regional, industry and labour effects

Hybridný systém modelov na podporu regionálnych politík: dopady na regióny, odvetvia a zamestnanosť

Duration: 1. 7. 2021 - 31. 12. 2024
Evidence number:APVV-20-0621
Program: APVV
Project leader: Ing. Radvanský Marek PhD.

Causality and machine learning in econometric models

Kauzalita a strojové učenie v ekonometrických modeloch

Duration: 1. 1. 2023 - 31. 12. 2025
Evidence number:VEGA 1/0398/23
Program: VEGA
Project leader: Mgr. Štefánik Miroslav PhD.
Annotation:A growing body of current research deals with addressing causal questions using algorithms of machine learning. This project aims to study causal inference questions within econometric models while leveraging the prediction performance of machine learning algorithms. The project will also make the methods more accessible to practitioners. While the team will remain open to examine various problems on the topic, there are some more concrete ideas that could be explored. More concretely, the project will attempt to: –study causal structure of econometric models in an algorithmic way, –explore diagnostic tools that could inform about how appropriate the model assumptions are and how sensitive the results are to violation of identifying assumptions –apply the existing methods to make use of high-dimensional data to study employment prospects of registered Slovak job-seekers and the effects of various programmes on both employment and wages.

Convergence and polarization in the world economy

Konvergencia a polarizácia vo svetovej ekonomike

Duration: 1. 1. 2023 - 31. 12. 2026
Evidence number:VEGA 2/0060/23
Program: VEGA
Project leader: Ing. Hošoff Boris PhD.
Annotation:The world economy has undergone a major transformation in the last decade, characterized by an intensification of the interaction of several long-term trends at the same time. In recent years, the changes brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of military conflicts have added to the trends of climate change and population ageing. The responsible authorities are reacting on this development by investing heavily and adapting economic strategies to improve resilience of economies and the balance of development. The project proposal is based on the need to update knowledge and major trends in real convergence, identifying endogenous and exogenous determinants that have fundamentally marked this process in the last decade, while focusing on those factors that affect GDP per capita convergence and minimize the negative effects of income polarization.

Methodological and Empirical Aspects of Subjective Welfare Measurement

Metodické a empirické aspekty merania subjektívneho blahobytu

Duration: 1. 1. 2023 - 31. 12. 2026
Evidence number:VEGA 1/0034/23
Program: VEGA
Project leader: doc. Ing. Pauhofová Iveta CSc.
Annotation:The perceptions of individuals are an essential component of the complex perspective of a country’s socio-economic profile, and ultimately they comprise an essential element when forming social policies. Ignoring the subjective dimension of welfare hence suggests that people’s perceptions of their economic welfare is relatively unconsidered in policy development. The main scientific goal of the project is to propose novel approaches to estimating subjective poverty lines and to examine trends in subjective welfare in the context of broader socio-economic changes in the European Union. This project will contribute to the ongoing research in the field of subjective welfare and subjective well-being in numerous important ways. Among others, it will make contributions to the field of subjective poverty measurement, and it will to the field provide new empirical evidence on subjective poverty and associated phenomena in Europe.

Modelling of accumulation of risks and imbalances in the financial sector

Modelovanie kumulácie rizík a nerovnováh vo finančnom sektore

Duration: 1. 1. 2024 - 31. 12. 2027
Evidence number:VEGA 2/0124/24
Program: VEGA
Project leader: Ing. Košťálová Zuzana PhD.
Annotation:The proposed project aims to contribute to the current state of modelling of risks and imbalances in the financial market, in particular in the credit market. Expansionary tendencies in the credit and real estate market, in a context of increasing price instability, increase possibility of imbalances that may threaten financial stability. Identifying expansionary phases and indicators that could predict accumulation of risks and imbalances is important from the perspective of economic and monetary policy makers. The intention is to develop models that can predict expansionary phase of the financial cycle and thus signal potential disruptions to financial stability. Our scientific approach and the results will contribute to the debate on considering risks for financial sector, predicting financial stability and will provide additional information that can serve in the context of financial sector supervision, namely for macroprudential policy purposes.

A non-classical perspective on migration and economy. Assessing the impact of migration on household welfare through indicators of inclusive growth

Neklasický pohľad na migráciu a ekonomiku. Hodnotenie vplyvu migrácie na blahobyt domácností prostredníctvom ukazovateľov inkluzívneho rastu

Duration: 1. 1. 2024 - 31. 12. 2026
Evidence number:VEGA 2/0172/24
Program: VEGA
Project leader: Saher Liudmyla PhD.
Annotation:The social and cultural impacts of migration can affect economic well-being. Despite the considerable number of studies, each large and sudden wave of migration needs to be studied separately because they all differ in some characteristics. Using the example of the forced migration of Ukrainians due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this research, through inclusive growth indicators, studies the impact of migration on the well-being of households in the Slovak Republic as the final and most important indicator of the functioning of the economic system. The research is carried out in two stages. In the first stage, the impact of migration on inclusive growth is determined. In the second stage, the impact of inclusive growth on households' well-being is assessed using economic and mathematical modeling methods. The methodology, based on the combination of microeconomic and macroeconomic data during the survey, more accurately assesses the state of well-being of households than the available statistics allow. The problem of fragmentation of microeconomic data in the study is solved by imputation methods to estimate missing values data on household income or consumption for all subgroups.

Transition from high to low dependence on public transfers in old age: can the multi-pillar pension system handle the negative consequences of population ageing?

Od vysokej k nízkej závislosti na verejných transferoch v starobe: dokáže viacpilierový dôchodkový systém zvládnuť negatívne následky starnutia populácie?

Duration: 1. 7. 2020 - 30. 6. 2024
Evidence number:APVV-19-0352
Program: APVV
Project leader: doc. Ing. Domonkos Tomáš PhD.

The resilience of inclusive economic growth under the influence of adverse economic situations

Odolnosť inkluzívneho ekonomického rastu pod vplyvom nepriaznivej ekonomickej situácie

Duration: 1. 10. 2022 - 30. 9. 2025
Evidence number:09I03-03-V01-00023
Program: Plán obnovy EÚ
Project leader: Saher Liudmyla PhD.

Approaches to the smart grids` dissemination

Prístupy k šíreniu inteligentných energetickych sietí

Duration: 1. 9. 2023 - 30. 9. 2025
Program: SASPRO
Project leader: Vakulenko Ihor Cand. Sc.

Developing the analysis of price transmission and its mechanisms as determinants of the future development of smaller markets

Rozvoj analýzy cenovej transmisie aj jej mechanizmov ako determinantov budúceho vývoja menších trhov

Duration: 1. 10. 2022 - 30. 9. 2024
Evidence number:09I03-03-V01-00054
Program: Plán obnovy EÚ
Project leader: Kharin Sergei Cand.Sc.

Follow the Money - Deciphering the Link between Shadow Banking Sector and the Illicit Financial Flows

Sledovať peniaze - Rozšifrovanie väzby medzi sektorom tieňového bankovníctva a nelegitímnymi finančnými tokmi

Duration: 1. 7. 2021 - 30. 6. 2025
Evidence number:APVV-20-0499
Program: APVV
Project leader: Ing. Širaňová Mária MA., PhD.

Transmission of price shocks along production value chain and real estate prices cluster analysis in Slovakia

Transmisia cenových šokov vo výrobnom reťazci a zhluková analýza cien nehnuteľností v SR

Duration: 1. 1. 2024 - 31. 12. 2025
Evidence number:VEGA 2/0158/24
Program: VEGA
Project leader: Kharin Sergei Cand.Sc.
Annotation:Since great recession in 2009, significantly diverse price developments had occurred, ranging from the deflation pressures, through stagflation and ending with the extremely volatile and in some cases exponential trajectories. The detailed analysis of the underlying factors of those processes lies in the focus of the activities of the proposed project. Two distinct strands of research will be conducted. First focusing on the real estate prices and their spatial interconnectedness and second disentangling the ties between energy prices and price tags of other products. To investigate spatial real-estate prices transmission we will augment the standard clustering methods by machine learning elements. To identify the power of the energy prices transmission along the production chain piecewise linear co-integration method (AVECM) based on the assumption that at any given time price transmission follows one of two linear error correction regimes will be modified to allow for non-linearity.

ROLEX-MP - The Role of Exchange Rate Channel in the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Case of Standard and Non-standard Monetary Policies

Úloha devízového kanála pri transmisii menovej politiky: Prípad štandardnej a neštandardnej menovej politiky

Duration: 1. 1. 2023 - 31. 12. 2025
Evidence number:GV-2022-4-P15-Z2
Program: Iné projekty
Project leader: Ing. Fišera Boris PhD.
Annotation:The primary objective of this project is to empirically investigate the role of the exchange rate channel in the transmission of monetary policy. Despite the importance of the exchange rate channel in the transmission of monetary policy even in larger economies, this topic remains understudied, particularly for the Euro Area (EA). The project focuses primarily on the EA, but has wider international implications. The project is divided into three main parts. First, the project will use a novel empirical approach to estimate what the transmission of different types of standard and nonstandard monetary policies in the EA would be in the absence of the exchange rate channel. Second, the project will explore, whether the central bank being 'behind the curve' (i.e., having too restrictive or too expansionary monetary policy stance) influences the effectiveness of the monetary transmission via the exchange rate channel. Third, the project would also investigate the consequences of large central bank balance sheet accumulation (with focus on foreign exchange reserves), which is often associated with the conduct of non-standard monetary policies, for the ability of the central bank to conduct its monetary policy and thus ensure effective monetary transmission. All three activities represent a novel contribution to the empirical research in monetary economics and would thus help the policymakers with the conduct of monetary policy. All the findings will be published in field journals.

Capital flight and government debt sustainability in Africa

Únik kapitálu a udržateľnosť vývoja vládneho dlhu v Afrike

Duration: 1. 1. 2024 - 31. 12. 2024
Evidence number:APP0454
Program: DoktoGranty
Project leader: Abille Adamu Braimah MA.
Annotation:While the International Monetary Fund recognizes the potential effect of capital flight on the debt position of African countries, it has not been incorporated into the fund’s framework for analysing the debt sustainability (DSA) of these countries. Also, the extent to which capital flight threatens most developing countries' debt sustainability is not well established in the literature. Given the enormity of the capital flight phenomenon in Africa, as demonstrated in the revolving-door hypothesis of capital flight and external debt, this project seeks to incorporate capital flight into the IMF’s DSA template. The project will count on the strength of the pooled mean group and the system-GMM empirical estimates of the effect of capital on sovereign bond spreads to simulate a capital flightless counterfactual sovereign bond spreads of the countries to demonstrate the true effect of capital flight.

The impact of political and economic events in the global environment on energy prices and EU energy security: implications for the Slovak Republic

Vplyv politicko-ekonomických udalostí vo svetovom prostredí na ceny energie a energeticú bezpečnosť EÚ: implikácie pre Slovenskú republiku

Duration: 1. 1. 2023 - 31. 12. 2026
Evidence number:VEGA 2/0003/23
Program: VEGA
Project leader: prof. Ing. Obadi Saleh Mothana PhD.
Annotation:Geopolitical and economic events in the global environment in recent years have significantly affected energy prices as well as the EU's energy security. The oil shocks, the global economic crisis, the ongoing and current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the diversity and asynchrony of EU economic policies are all instances that have highlighted the problematic situation of energy policy and energy security of the EU, as well as energy price fluctuations. Energy, represented by energy commities is closely linked to international politics, geopolitical economy and national security, has become one of the key factors in ever-changing international relations, which has a major impact on political, economic and social stability. The research will focus primarily on identifying the effects of political and economic events in the global environment on energy prices and energy security in the European Union, with a specific focus on the implications for the Slovak Republic.

Projects total: 26