Institute of Economic Research
Topic
Application of the microsimulation model in the case of Slovakia
PhD. program
Year of admission
2026
Name of the supervisor
Mgr. Tomáš Miklošovič, PhD.
Contact:
Receiving school
Národohospodárska fakulta EU
Annotation
Microsimulation modeling is an important analytical tool for evaluating potential changes in public policies before their implementation. It allows analyzing the behavior of individuals or groups at the micro level and simulating the impacts of various policy measures on the development of social, economic or educational systems. In the context of Slovakia, microsimulation models have so far been used relatively limitedly, especially in the field of educational policy. The aim of the dissertation is to construct a microsimulation model for Slovakia and its application to analyze the mismatch between the supply and demand for teachers in regional education. The research responds to the current problem of the Slovak education system, which is characterized by the aging of the teaching staff and the shortage of teachers in some subjects, especially in STEM subjects such as mathematics, physics or chemistry.
Methodologically, the dissertation will be based on dynamic microsimulation approaches, which allow modeling individual transitions between states (e.g. entering the profession, changing jobs, leaving the profession or retiring). The model will combine demographic projections, probability transition matrices and behavioral parameters estimated using econometric methods such as logistic regression or hazard models. The simulation model will allow testing of various public policy scenarios, such as the introduction of financial incentives for teachers, scholarship programs for students of pedagogical disciplines, regional contributions or retraining programs. The methodology will also include a sensitivity analysis of the model and validation of the results using historical data to verify its predictive ability.
The empirical part of the work will be based on a combination of administrative and statistical data. The main sources will include databases of the Ministry of Education of the Slovak Republic, data on regional education employees from the Center for Scientific and Technical Information of the Slovak Republic (CVTI SR), statistics on students and schools from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic system and demographic projections of the population by age and region. Additional data on university graduates and entry into the teaching profession will be drawn from university databases and statistics from the Ministry of Education. The regional dimension of the model will be based on data at the district or regional level, which will allow for the analysis of spatial differences between the supply and demand for teachers in individual regions of Slovakia.
The research builds on existing literature in the field of microsimulation modeling and labor market analysis. Štefánik and Miklošovič (2020) show the possibilities of using dynamic microsimulation models in the analysis of demographic and labor flows in the conditions of an aging population of Slovakia. This methodological tradition is also followed by the work of Balberčáková and Miklošovič (2023), which uses a microsimulation model to forecast the number of students and teachers by district.
The dissertation will expand these approaches to a more complex model of the interaction between the education system and the labor market and a scenario assessment of policy measures. The result will be an analytical tool that can serve as support for the creation of educational policy and strategic planning of human resources in education.
Methodologically, the dissertation will be based on dynamic microsimulation approaches, which allow modeling individual transitions between states (e.g. entering the profession, changing jobs, leaving the profession or retiring). The model will combine demographic projections, probability transition matrices and behavioral parameters estimated using econometric methods such as logistic regression or hazard models. The simulation model will allow testing of various public policy scenarios, such as the introduction of financial incentives for teachers, scholarship programs for students of pedagogical disciplines, regional contributions or retraining programs. The methodology will also include a sensitivity analysis of the model and validation of the results using historical data to verify its predictive ability.
The empirical part of the work will be based on a combination of administrative and statistical data. The main sources will include databases of the Ministry of Education of the Slovak Republic, data on regional education employees from the Center for Scientific and Technical Information of the Slovak Republic (CVTI SR), statistics on students and schools from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic system and demographic projections of the population by age and region. Additional data on university graduates and entry into the teaching profession will be drawn from university databases and statistics from the Ministry of Education. The regional dimension of the model will be based on data at the district or regional level, which will allow for the analysis of spatial differences between the supply and demand for teachers in individual regions of Slovakia.
The research builds on existing literature in the field of microsimulation modeling and labor market analysis. Štefánik and Miklošovič (2020) show the possibilities of using dynamic microsimulation models in the analysis of demographic and labor flows in the conditions of an aging population of Slovakia. This methodological tradition is also followed by the work of Balberčáková and Miklošovič (2023), which uses a microsimulation model to forecast the number of students and teachers by district.
The dissertation will expand these approaches to a more complex model of the interaction between the education system and the labor market and a scenario assessment of policy measures. The result will be an analytical tool that can serve as support for the creation of educational policy and strategic planning of human resources in education.