The list of national projects SAS
Institute of Economic Research
Distributional Effects of Misreporting in International Trade in Services
Distribučné dopady fiktívnej fakturácie v medzinárodnom obchode so službami
| Duration: |
1.1.2024 - 31.12.2026 |
| Program: |
VEGA |
| Project leader: |
doc. Ing. König Brian PhD. |
| Annotation: | The service sector and its role in international trade have experienced significant growth in recent years. International trade in services has become one of the main sources of economic growth and it represents a significant source of competitiveness for companies. However, international trade is often used as a means of illicit financial flows through trade misinvoicing. The main objective of the project is to obtain estimates of illicit financial flows that originate due to the misreporting in international trade in services and to empirically investigate the effect of these illicit financial flows on income inequality. The project will rely on two key approaches to estimate volumes of misreporting in international trade in services for a global sample of countries: An approach based on the analysis of different reported values in international trade on the importer and exporter side, and an approach based on the analysis of the unexplained volume of international trade through the gravity model. |
Pensions and Transfers in a Dynamic Overlapping Generations Model of a Small Open Ageing Economy
Dôchodky a transfery v dynamickom modeli prekrývajúcich sa generácií malej otvorenej starnúcej ekonomiky
| Duration: |
1.7.2024 - 30.6.2028 |
| Program: |
SRDA |
| Project leader: |
doc. Ing. Domonkos Tomáš PhD. |
| Annotation: | Slovakia belongs to the group of European countries facing severe ageing of their population. This adverse
development in the share of the working-age population led to the perception that the Slovak public Pay-As-You-
Go pension system might not be sustainable in the future. Alongside the increasing pressure on public finances,
aging can affect the economic development and welfare throughout other channels as well. It may lead to capital
deepening which can be accompanied by increasing capital to labor ratio, decreasing returns on assets, and
increasing wages. Aging in developed countries is accompanied by decreasing fertility rate, often far below
replacement level. Considering the well-known quantity-quality tradeoff of children originating in the influential work
of Becker (1960), a smaller number of children within households can be accompanied by increasing investments
in their human capital. Thus, even if the number of workers is smaller, their higher productivity mitigates the
negative welfare impacts of aging.
Our aim is an in-depth analysis and modelling the impact of ageing on the sustainability of the Slovak pension and
transfer system. By doing so, we assume encourage the general discussion about the intergeneration fairness and sustainability of the Slovak pension system.
For addressing the main aim and the hypotheses we aim to develop a dynamic large-scale overlapping generations
(OLG) model with heterogeneous agents, realistic demography, three-pillar pension system and other private and public transfers. The motivation is to expand the tools used to evaluate the effects of ageing on the Slovak
economy with respect to various alternative settings of the pension and transfer system including t axation rules as
well. The model will enrich the already well recognized OLG frameworks by including the second pillar, child -
related pension benefits as well as bequests. Thus, it has the potential to enrich the theoretical foundations of
dynamic OLG models. |
Financial cycle: design, modelling and forecasting within machine learning framework
Finančný cyklus: tvorba, modelovanie a predikcie v prostredí strojového učenia
| Duration: |
1.7.2023 - 31.12.2026 |
| Program: |
SRDA |
| Project leader: |
prof. Ing. Lyócsa Štefan PhD. |
| Annotation: | Financial instability is associated with periods when businesses find it difficult to access capital, the investment is constrained, and confidence among economic agents, including households, is falling, forcing them to make significant adjustments to their current and future budgets. The peak and subsequent bust of the financial cycle is associated with such periods of financial instability. The financial cycle thus captures changes in the behaviour of economic agents, in particular changes in risk appetite. The way the financial cycle is estimated should reflect the specificities of individual financial systems, leading policy makers to demand tailor-made solutions for each country. The main objective of the proposed applied research project is to propose new financial cycle indicators that will be used to monitor and predict future risks for financial stability in Slovakia. Our solution will provide the beneficiary with several new financial cycle indicators, prediction models based on machine learning and estimates of the most important factors influencing the future development of the financial cycle. The proposed solution should provide a decision support system that is both beneficial for the financial sector but also has the ambition to contribute to the debate on future macroprudential policy measures. |
Evaluation the dynamics and nature of changes in the Slovak economy in a rapidly changing external environment
Hodnotenie dynamiky a charakteru zmien v slovenskej ekonomike v prudko sa meniacom externom prostredí
| Duration: |
1.1.2023 - 31.12.2026 |
| Program: |
VEGA |
| Project leader: |
Ing. Jeck Tomáš PhD. |
| Annotation: | The Slovak economy has recently been exposed to unprecedented external shocks that fundamentally affect its current and future development. The effects of the pandemic and the war conflict in Ukraine have triggered the need to respond to the new reality at the Slovak and European level. The problem of stagnating productivity and the loss of traditional competitiveness (in the form of low unit labour costs) in the post-Covid era calls for a new understanding of economic policy that better links the promotion of productivity with human development. In this context, new challenges arise for public policies, particularly in the areas of the labour market (demographic challenges, migration), external economic relations, public budgets, science, research and innovation, not only domestically but also in relation to European policies and continued integration. The project is therefore aimed at exploring the dynamics and nature of these changes in the Slovak economy in a rapidly changing external environment. |
Convergence and polarization in the world economy
Konvergencia a polarizácia vo svetovej ekonomike
| Duration: |
1.1.2023 - 31.12.2026 |
| Program: |
VEGA |
| Project leader: |
Ing. Hošoff Boris PhD. |
| Annotation: | The world economy has undergone a major transformation in the last decade, characterized by an intensification of the interaction of several long-term trends at the same time. In recent years, the changes brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of military conflicts have added to the trends of climate change and population ageing. The responsible authorities are reacting on this development by investing heavily and adapting economic strategies to improve resilience of economies and the balance of development. The project proposal is based on the need to update knowledge and major trends in real convergence, identifying endogenous and exogenous determinants that have fundamentally marked this process in the last decade, while focusing on those factors that affect GDP per capita convergence and minimize the negative effects of income polarization. |
Methodological and Empirical Aspects of Subjective Welfare Measurement
Metodické a empirické aspekty merania subjektívneho blahobytu
| Duration: |
1.1.2023 - 31.12.2026 |
| Program: |
VEGA |
| Project leader: |
doc. Ing. Pauhofová Iveta CSc. |
| Annotation: | The perceptions of individuals are an essential component of the complex perspective of a country’s socio-economic profile, and ultimately they comprise an essential element when forming social policies. Ignoring the subjective dimension of welfare hence suggests that people’s perceptions of their economic welfare is relatively unconsidered in policy development. The main scientific goal of the project is to propose novel approaches to estimating subjective poverty lines and to examine trends in subjective welfare in the context of broader socio-economic changes in the European Union. This project will contribute to the ongoing research in the field of subjective welfare and subjective well-being in numerous important ways. Among others, it will make contributions to the field of subjective poverty measurement, and it will to the field provide new empirical evidence on subjective poverty and associated phenomena in Europe. |
Modelling of accumulation of risks and imbalances in the financial sector
Modelovanie kumulácie rizík a nerovnováh vo finančnom sektore
| Duration: |
1.1.2024 - 31.12.2027 |
| Program: |
VEGA |
| Project leader: |
Ing. Košťálová Zuzana PhD. |
| Annotation: | The proposed project aims to contribute to the current state of modelling of risks and imbalances in the financial market, in particular in the credit market. Expansionary tendencies in the credit and real estate market, in a context of increasing price instability, increase possibility of imbalances that may threaten financial stability. Identifying expansionary phases and indicators that could predict accumulation of risks and imbalances is important from the perspective of economic and monetary policy makers. The intention is to develop models that can predict expansionary phase of the financial cycle and thus signal potential disruptions to financial stability. Our scientific approach and the results will contribute to the debate on considering risks for financial sector, predicting financial stability and will provide additional information that can serve in the context of financial sector supervision, namely for macroprudential policy purposes. |
A non-classical perspective on migration and economy. Assessing the impact of migration on household welfare through indicators of inclusive growth
Neklasický pohľad na migráciu a ekonomiku. Hodnotenie vplyvu migrácie na blahobyt domácností prostredníctvom ukazovateľov inkluzívneho rastu
| Duration: |
1.1.2024 - 31.12.2026 |
| Program: |
VEGA |
| Project leader: |
Saher Liudmyla PhD. |
| Annotation: | The social and cultural impacts of migration can affect economic well-being. Despite the considerable number of studies, each large and sudden wave of migration needs to be studied separately because they all differ in some characteristics. Using the example of the forced migration of Ukrainians due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this research, through inclusive growth indicators, studies the impact of migration on the well-being of households in the Slovak Republic as the final and most important indicator of the functioning of the economic system. The research is carried out in two stages. In the first stage, the impact of migration on inclusive growth is determined. In the second stage, the impact of inclusive growth on households' well-being is assessed using economic and mathematical modeling methods. The methodology, based on the combination of microeconomic and macroeconomic data during the survey, more accurately assesses the state of well-being of households than the available statistics allow. The problem of fragmentation of microeconomic data in the study is solved by imputation methods to estimate missing values data on household income or consumption for all subgroups. |
New Methods for Emotion-based Economic Uncertainty Modelling
Nové metódy modelovania ekonomickej neistoty založené na emóciách
| Duration: |
25.9.2025 - 31.10.2027 |
| Program: |
Other projects |
| Project leader: |
Mgr. Koráb Petr PhD. |
| Annotation: | The project develops new methods for economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk inference using advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP) models. The project improves understanding in two related areas: (1) identifying economic uncertainty, building on the EPU index of Baker et al. (2016), and (2) modeling geopolitical risk, introduced with the pivotal GPR index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022). It employs an innovative methodology, combining semantic similarity identification with word embeddings from BERT and emotion recognition with RoBERTa. It expands geopolitical risk inference by utilizing qualified risk assessment in speech datasets from central banks, NATO, and the International Monetary Fund. The constructed indices will be accessible to the general public on a project website, with a processing architecture securing regular data updates. |
Climate Change and Market Risks: Examining the Impact of Natural Disasters on Stock Volatility and Returns
Prepojenie klimatických zmien a trhových rizík: Skúmanie vplyvu prírodných katastrof na volatilitu a výnosy akcií
| Duration: |
1.1.2026 - 31.12.2029 |
| Program: |
VEGA |
| Project leader: |
Ing. Moravcová Michala PhD. |
| Annotation: | The primary objective of this project is to investigate the relationship between attention to climate change represented by natural disasters and the evolution of market risks, specifically measured through stock price volatility and extreme negative returns (captured by Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall). The empirical analysis will focus on individual companies traded in the U.S. and European stock markets. The goal is to estimate the extent to which individual firms are vulnerable to climate-related changes represented by natural disasters. Vulnerability of individual companies and sectors will be calculated on the interactions between shifts in attention to natural disasters and stock price fluctuations including its extreme price losses. We aim to identify and assess vulnerability across sectors, firms, and types of natural events. |
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Prínosy a náklady osobitného postavenia vybraných kategórií poistencov verejného zdravotného poistenia v kontexte zdravotnej a sociálnej politiky
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Transmisia menovej politiky v eurozóne: Úloha finančných nerovnováh
| Duration: |
1.3.2025 - 31.12.2028 |
| Program: |
SRDA |
| Project leader: |
Ing. Fišera Boris PhD. |
| Annotation: | The recent inflation surge has underlined the importance of studying the transmission of monetary policy to inflation. Monetary policy tightening in the Euro Area (EA) and in most major economies in 2022-2023 was followed by a rapid disinflation with only limited output losses. While several explanations for this “soft landing” have been proposed, the role of imbalances in the financial system has remained largely unexplored. We hypothesize that the presence (absence) of financial imbalances might constrain (enhance) the ability of monetary policy to affect real variables such as inflation. We assume that the diverse inflation paths that were recently observed across the EA countries could be partly explained by varying magnitudes of financial imbalances across the EA that might have contributed to heterogeneous monetary transmission. The primary objective of this research proposal is thus to explore the effect of financial imbalances on the transmission of monetary policy in the EA, using a self-constructed financial cycle indicator (FCI) as a comprehensive measure of financial imbalances. Moreover, we also aim to construct an improved indicator of EA monetary policy shocks. Using these indicators, we aim to empirically study the conditionality of monetary policy transmission on the stage of the financial cycle. Using counterfactual analysis, we also aim to assess whether monetary policy would have been more effective if it had followed a policy rule that also responded to financial imbalances. |
The impact of political and economic events in the global environment on energy prices and EU energy security: implications for the Slovak Republic
Vplyv politicko-ekonomických udalostí vo svetovom prostredí na ceny energie a energeticú bezpečnosť EÚ: implikácie pre Slovenskú republiku
| Duration: |
1.1.2023 - 31.12.2026 |
| Program: |
VEGA |
| Project leader: |
prof. Ing. Obadi Saleh Mothana PhD. |
| Annotation: | Geopolitical and economic events in the global environment in recent years have significantly affected energy prices as well as the EU's energy security. The oil shocks, the global economic crisis, the ongoing and current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the diversity and asynchrony of EU economic policies are all instances that have highlighted the problematic situation of energy policy and energy security of the EU, as well as energy price fluctuations. Energy, represented by energy commities is closely linked to international politics, geopolitical economy and national security, has become one of the key factors in ever-changing international relations, which has a major impact on political, economic and social stability. The research will focus primarily on identifying the effects of political and economic events in the global environment on energy prices and energy security in the European Union, with a specific focus on the implications for the Slovak Republic. |
The total number of projects: 13
