In: Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, vol. 66, no. 1
Peter Chifflard - Julius Kranl - Georg Zur Strassen - Harald Zepp
Detaily:
Rok, strany: 2018, 1 - 11
O článku:
We examine the feasibility and added value of upscaling point data of soil moisture from a small- to a mesoscale
catchment for the purpose of single-event flood prediction. We test the hypothesis that in a given catchment, the
present soil moisture status is a key factor governing peak discharge, flow volume and flood duration. Multiple
regression analyses of rainfall, pre-event discharge, single point soil moisture profiles from representative locations and
peak discharge, discharge duration, discharge volume are discussed. The soil moisture profiles are selected along a
convergent slope connected to the groundwater in flood plain within the small-scale catchment Husten (2.6 km²), which
is a headwater catchment of the larger Hüppcherhammer catchment (47.2 km², Germany). Results show that the number
of explanatory variables in the regression models is higher in summer (up to 8 variables) than in winter (up to 3
variables) and higher in the meso-scale catchment than in the small-scale catchment (up to 2 variables). Soil moisture
data from selected key locations in the small catchment improves the quality of regression models established for the
meso-scale catchment. For the different target variables peak discharge, discharge duration and discharge volume the
adding of the soil moisture from the flood plain and the lower slope as explanatory variable improves the quality of the
regression model by 15%, 20% and 10%, respectively, especially during the summer season. In the winter season the
improvement is smaller (up to 6%) and the regression models mainly include rainfall characteristics as explanatory
variables. The appearance of the soil moisture variables in the stepwise regression indicates their varying importance,
depending on which characteristics of the discharge are focused on. Thus, we conclude that point data for soil moisture
in functional landscape elements describe the catchments’ initial conditions very well and may yield valuable
information for flood prediction and warning systems.
Ako citovať:
ISO 690:
Chifflard, P., Kranl, J., Zur Strassen, G., Zepp, H. 2018. The significance of soil moisture in forecasting characteristics of flood events.
A statistical analysis in two nested catchments. In Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, vol. 66, no.1, pp. 1-11. 0042-790X (until 2019) .
APA:
Chifflard, P., Kranl, J., Zur Strassen, G., Zepp, H. (2018). The significance of soil moisture in forecasting characteristics of flood events.
A statistical analysis in two nested catchments. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 66(1), 1-11. 0042-790X (until 2019) .