SAS and CAS scientists found a new method for detecting the causes of extreme phenomena
Scientists have been, for a long time, dealing with the question of what causes extraordinary events, such as extreme weather conditions, financial market crashes or epileptic seizures. These phenomena are the subject of intensive research that seeks to understand their mechanisms and early warning methods. A joint team of scientists from the Slovak Academy of Sciences and the Czech Academy of Sciences has developed a new calculation method that helps clarify which of the potential causes actually causes extremes.
The study is the result of the cooperation of the team from the CAS Institute of Computer Science (Milan Paluš, head of the team, Pouya Manshour) and the Institute of Measurement Science SAS (Martina Chvosteková), and provides an answer to a fundamental question: Which of several potential causes actually causes the extremes? For example, with spring frosts in France, it is questionable whether the cause is the North Atlantic Oscillation, the so-called blocking events (e.g. cyclones and anticyclones), or Siberian high pressure.
The new method developed by the researchers uses Rényi entropy. "It is an information measure that brings a deeper insight into the complexity and variability in the data by evaluating in a special way how the data is divided or organized," explains Anna Krakovská, head of the Department of Theoretical Methods of the Institute of Measurement Science SAS.
For instance, in the case of the frosts that caused problems for French winemakers in particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation and blocking events have been shown to affect the temperature in France, but it is the Siberian high air pressure that is responsible for the cold spring extremes under certain conditions. "We tested the developed calculation method on simulated and real climate data. However, it is directly applicable to the research of causal relationships and the search for sources of extreme events in many other areas," explains the scientist.
The results of the joint research of the CAS Institute of Computer Science and the Institute of Measurement Science SAS were published in the prestigious scientific journal Science Advances, which is known for its significant contribution to the field of science and technology.
The research was supported by the prestigious Academic Award (Praemium Academiae) of the Czech Academy of Sciences, awarded to RNDr. Milan Paluš, DrSc., in 2019.
Spracovala: Andrea Nozdrovická
Foto: Ústav merania SAV, v. v. i.