Electronic Library of Scientific Literature - © Academic Electronic Press
Volume 50 / No. 3 / 2002
The very positive economic results of the American economy – fast economic dynamic, very weak inflation and low level of unemployment – at the beginning of the 90s, and especially the world dominant position of the United States of America in the domain of high-tech, namely ICT, led theoreticians to reconsider the relevancy of the economic development paradigme which was generally accepted in economic theory. Some of them concluded that, at the end of the 20th century, we entered a fully new economic situation, when new rules of economical behaviour allowed the economic actors to accelerate the innovation process and the economic growth and the process of valorization of the capital inputs.
They considered that with the fast development of the Internet, which has taken place in the first half of the 90th and the phenomena of globalization, a new period of economic growth appeared. This new model of economic development was firstly designed as a ”net economy” and with it, also by the concept of ”new economy” which followed an older one, characteristical for the economy of the industrial society of the 20th century. According to them, the ICT and wide globalization are at the start point of a new phase of economic development, of a new Kontradiev’s cycle, bringing a prospect of a long time development with low level of unemployment, growing productivity and practically no inflation, and which creates good conditions for an optimistic vision of a long-term growth of prosperity.
The majority of these statements are based on the evaluation of the socio-economic results of the American economy during the last decades. These constatations are not accepted unanimously. Many experts underline the very fact that the developments, which are taken into account by the authors, convinced of the existence of a ”new economy”, can be explained by the fully traditional functionning of the economy, where classical instruments of financial policy, stimulating the economic activities and consumption, investments, R & D, innovative process, etc., opened the way for a very fast development of the ICT and their positive impact on the economic growth. The economic history of the USA confirms that such a relatively long periods of economic growth, of productivity and low inflation existed in the times when neither ICT, nor globalization were so developed as now. Many other attributes of the ”new economy”, as higher productivity of the economy, better for regional development, unpreceding long period of economic growth, high level of employment, which is in fact accompanied by a deep precariousness of the job market, etc.
The article compares the different positions of some representatives of the controversive discussion, and concludes, that the concept of ”new economy” is more a myth, than a reality.
It does not mean that many trends of the economic reality of the developed countries cannot have a more general signification and implications. It is out of discussion that ICT and globalization promote the economic dynamic and bring new jobs, but all in the context of a relevant economic policy, which rules are not changed considerably. Many of new the new trends are to be taken in consideration in today economic policy and in prospectuous development strategies which are in elaboration in the Slovak Republic too.
Zlatica IVANIČOVÁ – Eva RUBLÍKOVÁ
Since 1993 Slovak Republic has its own currency which is strongly influenced by both external and internal changes of economic and political life of the country. Apart from the changes caused by currency deprecation other meaningful change have occurred on autumn 1998, when the fixed exchange rate has been changed to floating one. These changes of Slovak exchange rate were partly caused by changes in inflation as the consequence of adjustment of domestic controlled prices.
Slovak Republic is anxious to enter European Union and this is the reason to follow the development of Slovak exchange rate under the influence of domestic inflation and the inflation of the European Union countries, on the base of purchasing power parity (PPP). The analysis abstracted from supply and demand of the Slovak crown on the exchange market.
Analysis is split to two parts. In the first part we analyze computed values (sk/eu) of exchange rate of SKK/EUR on the base of PPP by means of monthly data beginning from the January 1998 and ending on December 2001. These computed values are then compared with the real values of the exchange rate which are published by National Bank of Slovakia. In the second part we use the simple statistical method of exponential smoothing to get forecasts of SKK/EUR from the January 2002 till December 2002. Ex-post forecasts from the October 2000 till December 2001are used to evaluate the reliability of the model.
Development of inflation in countries of EMU and Slovakia is given on the Figure1. Development of price level increased in 1999 in comparing with the year 1998. The jump of annual growth rate of consumer prices was the result of application of import extra charge by 7 per cent (June the 1st, 1999) and double augmentation of the prices of energy (July 1999). Big changes in controlled prices influenced the average inflation too much, so the core inflation was computed. Figure 1 shows that average monthly core inflation is close to average monthly inflation of the countries EMU. It seems to us, that Slovakia inflation is up to standard of inflation in EU.
Development of real exchange rate SKK/EUR and computed rate SKK/EUR on the base of PPP (specified as sk/eu) is depicted on Figure 2 and Figure 3. On Figure 2 there are two interesting periods of changes. The first change (from September 1999) is done by transition of fixed course to floating one and also the result of overestimating Slovak crown in previous period. Because real rate of SKK/EUR is lower than computed rate sk/eu, it means that we pay for one EUR less than it is expected due to computed value. From November 2001 the situation of real rate of SKK/EUR became quite stable, in the interval from 42 SKK for one EUR to 44 SKK for one EUR. In this period computed values sk/eu are much higher than real values SKK/EUR. The depreciation of Slovak crown is possible to explain by the high average annual inflation and by the change of currency mode. This development matching claim, that in the mode of floating course the currency will immediately or with short delay react to the development of inflation (see R. Roll ).
Figure 3 shows development of real (SKK/EUR) and computed (sk/eu) exchange rate of Slovak crown on the base of average monthly inflation in EMU and average monthly core inflation in Slovakia. There are four interesting periods characterized with cyclical development of computed rates. First time there is overestimation of Slovak crown with respect to EUR. After currency mode real rate shortly increased and computed rate accommodate with delay around of four months. In the second period values of computed rates are lower than real values, which means that Slovak crown was underestimated. It was negatively-headed effect on development of exchange rate following currency mode. The third and fourth period pretend stabilization of real rate. Values of computed rate record fluctuations every time on January with delay of three months markedly due to currency mode. It is also result of calculation form in which we do not adjust of cyclical effects. During the period from August till December 2001 both rates real and computed converge to each other as the consequence of convergence of inflation in EMU and Slovakia. On August and December 2001 inflation in EMU was 2.7 per cent, and 2.1 per cent respectively. On the same time in Slovakia it was 4.9 per cent, and 3.2 per cent respectively.
Achieved results show that the signification of PPP is not limited only for the long-run analysis of development of exchange rates. Especially, in floating currency mode, inflation strongly effect evolution of exchange rate as the display of the influence of market factors.
Statistical short-term forecasts of both real and computed rates of Slovak crown to EUR were calculated by means of the exponential smoothing method, especially by Holt and Winter method, for the next twelve months of the year 2002. The forecasts are summarized in Table 1.
Attached results taken on the basis of purchasing power parity have mentioned to the fact, that Slovak crown was during the period from March 2000 till December 2001 moderately overestimated providing core inflation and during the period September 1999 till December 2001 strongly overestimated providing average inflation respectively. It comes to this, that it would reach appreciation of EUR towards Slovak crown, i. e. that exchange rate would increase. This trend have been confirmed on May 2002, when exchange rate SKK/EUR converge to 44 Slovak crowns for one EUR. Also short-term forecasts indicate overestimation of real exchange rates in the first months of the year 2002. Following both analysis we assume that the value of exchange rate will increase in future.
The boom of the USA economy in the nineties outmatched all the booms in the past fifty years as well as the expectations of many economists. Important indicators such as unemployment rate, inflation rate, capitalisation of financial markets and fiscal management helped to prolong the expansion of the economic cycle. GDP growth rate and productivity growth rate was on average higher than any other comparable economic system. At the same time the whole decade was dominated by the efficient functioning of the monetary policy of the central bank Fed.
Conditions in the nineties differed substantially from those in the seventies and eighties. In the nineties one managed in the US to change the tendency in the economic cycle and market subjects became more confident that any increase of inflation and interest rates is only a temporary one and that the long-term trend in monetary policy follows price stability.
First-rate target of the Fed’s monetary strategy was to maximise long-term economic growth along with the preservation of the stable purchasing power of the currency. Along with fiscal consolidation, which already inspired confidence, monetary policy was able to act more efficiently in favour of sustainable growth and prolonged expansion.
Balancing and stabilising of the development of currency’s purchasing power and inflation started to be successful since the times when in currency policy monetary approach prevailed and when one ascribed to the currency the irreplaceable role in its function in individual phases of economic cycles. Later successes achieved in the field of local currency’s strong exchange rate and long-term economy growth had big support in the change of Fed’s policy of the year 1979 and its further gradual enforcement into the mode of economic cycle function.
When in the second half of the year 2000 the output began gradually to slow down its growth rate, Fed let the official interest rate unchanged (6.5 per cent) and thus signalled its potential decrease. Fed was led towards the consecutive relaxation of conditions in the market by the fears of the deterioration the expansion results (relaxation of the investment and consumption demand) and possible recession deepening. Central bank thus opened the struggle for the confidence in its abilities.
The character of economic slow-down and recession depend also on how intensive the unbalances generated in economy manifest themselves during boom expansion. The causes responsible for the recession situation of economic growth slow-down are numerous and can-not be all included here. Ever-new impulses affecting the behaviour of enterprises, households and the government subscribe themselves on the unbalances already generated, and it is questionable to what extent the economy will be able to develop itself further alongside with this negative impact. In the USA the following three sorts of unbalances most markedly occur: a) net savings of private sector are negative; b) households and firms generate big debts; c) current account payment balance deficit grows enormously.
High financial deficit of the private sector arose as a result of the investment increase and dramatically decreased growth rate in personal savings. Should the net savings return to their historic average, the result would be a relatively big decrease of aggregate demand after the decrease of consumer expenses and investments of firms. This case can be provoked by medium-term expectations of negative development of the product, employment and decreasing incomes that will reflect in share rates.
The growth of capital markets played an important role in consumer demand. We demonstrated by means of regression analysis that for higher real expenses of the house-holds lower disposable income was enough, in other words, in the years 1984 – 1990 the elasticity of real personal expenses towards the changes in disposable income was stronger, whereas in the years 1991–1997 this elasticity was weakened by the possibility of higher indebtedness. Disposable income no longer played in consumer decision of the households such an important role as in the past and the demand could increase at the expense of the higher drawing of the financial market tools.
The development of financial markets accompanied by the enforcement of monetary rules in economic policy was indirectly related with the growth of deficit in the current account payments. The trade deficit is in its essence the flow and will last as long as one could finance it either by the sale of foreign assets owned by the Americans or by the sales of domestic American assets to foreigners or by loans from abroad. Trade deficit thus brings about financial risk in the form of high uncertainty rate generated by exogenous influences (for instance uncertain foreign demand).
Mentioned unbalances, which were generated during the boom of the nineties, are connected with the development of capital markets and with the high growth of American economy. The indebtedness of the private sector and the current account payment balance deficit result from the favourable development of the boom, which however, they inevitably subvert in the long-term horizon. Negative net savings are important mainly from the short-term point of view. Negative net savings are important also from the point of view of the boom slow-down’s impact on the consumption of the private sector. The important part in the process of increasing unbalances is played by the macro-economic strategy, particularly the functioning of monetary and fiscal policy trying to moderate the influence of the slower growth of economy and weaker aggregate demand.
American economy is since the second half of the year 2000 in the phase where the supply and demand try to find a new balance after the end of the period of long-term not sustainable fast growth. Although in this phase the economy demonstrated signs typical for the recession of economy – excessive capacities, decreasing investments, worker discharging, decreasing profits – this slow-down lacks dynamics, gravity of consequences and duration of the real recession.
Monetary policy responded to this development relatively quickly and markedly decreased interest rates, thus confirming the fears of economy’s recession. These fears prevail and the expectations to continue a relaxed monetary policy of the central bank are confirmed. The prospects for further monetary reaction are based on weak inflation pressures. However, some signs of their possible increase exist. At stake are above all relatively saturated labour market and the risk of weakening of the USD exchange rate.
Economic cycle is in the advanced phase and favourable inflation conditions that allowed the Fed to decrease interest rates may not prevail in the future. Thus it will depend on how one succeeds to maintain investment activity, where the fluctuation in later phases directly influences the consumption sector. We cannot expect that consumers will maintain their expenses on such a high level (concerning their indebtedness), as has been the situation up till now. We can say that if before September 2001 one sensed a certain unwillingness to engage fiscal programmes into the support of aggregate demand, one now considers such a tool of economic policy as indispensable. This will thus mean even stronger short-term support for the weakened growth. It is also unquestionable that in macro-economic policy the economic and policy mix will be changed when the hither-to preferred monetary policy would be accompanied to a greater extent also by the support for fiscal budget.
Current expenses of the government for the first quarter of 2002 total 28.8 per cent of GDP and one should say that higher government expenditure is implemented at the expense of private investments. Question remains, how will greater public expenses influence long-term interest rates. Long-term balance of the American economy will be influenced, however, by the decline of fiscal balance, where the deficit for the first quarter of 2002 totals 64.4 billion USD. The combination of slower growing economy, higher expenses and tax decreases changes the estimates of projected fiscal excesses. Higher government expenses will strengthen the role of the government in the economy and thus a new power distribution between private and public sectors will take place.
Obadi SALEH MOTHANA
Predložený príspevok skúma globalizáciu ako proces, a zároveň aj možnosti a ťaž-kosti, ktoré rozvojovým krajinám môže priniesť. Jeho cieľom je odhaliť vplyv interna-cionalizácie na ekonomický rast a konkurencieschopnosť. Krátkou komparatívnou ana-lýzou konkurencieschopnosti rozvojových krajín vo vzťahu k rozvinutým krajinám je príspevok zavŕšený. Táto časť príspevku bola spracovaná v rámci projektu VEGA, SAV, 2/7123/20.
Posledné dve dekády boli charakterizované mnohými rýchlymi zmenami v politickej a sociálnej oblasti, ale najmä v oblasti internacionalizácie či globalizácie ekonomických aktivít. Globalizácia sa stala významným fenoménom posledných dvoch dekád a svet sa tým stal menší a viac pripojený. Tento jav bol odrazom technických a technologických zmien najmä v oblasti transportu a telekomunikácií.
Hlavným hnacím motorom globalizácie sú transnacionálne korporácie, ktorých vplyv na celoplanetárne ekonomické a spoločenské dianie v posledných dvoch dekádach veľmi narastá. Ekonomická sila týchto megakorporácií často prekračuje hospodársku výkonnosť samostatných štátov, ktoré svojou ekonomickou silou určujú pravidlá hry tak, aby chránili partikulárne záujmy nielen v materských, ale aj v hosťujúcich krajinách bez ohľadu na ekonomické a sociálne dôsledky z toho vyplývajúce.
V našom príspevku nie je priestor na to, aby sme rozobrali pozitíva a negatíva transnacionálnych korporácií. Je to len skromná snaha analyzovať úroveň konkurencieschopnosti rozvojových krajín v kontexte globalizácie. Globálna ekonomická integrácia, rozšírenie a intenzifikácia medzinárodnej väzby v obchode, vo financiách a v komunikácii v posledných dekádach veľmi akcelerovali. Produkcia a obchod sú veľmi úzko spojené; kým svetová produkcia sa zvýšila v posledných štyroch dekádach šestnásťnásobne, obchodné toky sa zvýšili pätnásťnásobne.
Tento trend bol sprevádzaný mnohými zmenami aj v oblasti finančných tokov do rozvojových krajín. Toky súkromného kapitálu sa stali významnejšími v porovnaní s oficiálnymi, resp. so štátnymi kapitálovými tokmi.
Výhody globalizácie však nemožno jednoznačne zovšeobecňovať pre všetky krajiny, a to vzhľadom na rozdiely v miere získaných výhod, najmä čo sa týka rozvojových krajín. Životná úroveň rástla, ale nie vo všetkých krajinách. Globálna ekonomická integrácia pomohla zvýšiť prosperitu v rôznych tranzitívnych, ako aj rozvojových ekonomikách. No na strane druhej sa prehlbujú ekonomické krízy v iných rozvojových krajinách.
Podľa Mohameda El-Erianiho  globalizáciu nemožno zastaviť, ani ignorovať, okrem toho participácia v nej nie je dobrovoľná vzhľadom na nezvratné zmeny vo vonkajšom prostredí. Avšak globalizácia nie je vždy bezbolestná. Pokračovanie v medzinárodnej ekonomickej integrácii a liberalizácii obchodu môže mať v blízkej budúcnosti sociálne a ekonomické náklady vzhľadom na možné pohyby pracovných síl a otvorenosti konkurencii.
Je pravdepodobné, že pri procese globalizácie vzniknú dve skupiny: tzv. víťazi, resp. ziskoví (winners) a stratoví (losers). Teda medzi tými, ktorí disponujú vyšším vzdelaním, skúsenosťami a mobilitou, a tými, ktorý tým nedisponujú. Medzi týmito dvoma skupinami sa prejavujú sociálne medzery najmä z krátkodobého hľadiska.
Sily, ktoré poháňajú proces globalizácie, sú každým dňom viditeľnejšie. Spomenieme napríklad: rozmach obchodu, integrácia svetového kapitalového trhu, zvýšenie významu súkromného kapitálu a priameho zahraničného kapitálu, rozvoj telekomunikácií a transportu a zmena v pohybe pracovných síl.
Miery výhod, ktoré krajiny získali z integrácie, sú podľa medzinárodného menového fondu veľmi rozdielne. Avšak životná úroveň väčšiny krajín sa v posledných 30 rokoch zvýšila. Okrem novoindustrializovaných krajín rozvojové krajiny ako celok zdvojnásobili svoj reálny HDP per capita, aj keď mnohé z nich nevyužili svoj ekonomický potenciál.
Globalizácia môže priniesť aj pozitívne efekty, a to zvýšením konkurencie a rozšírením výberu spotrebiteľa týkajúceho sa kvality a služieb. Na druhej strane môže dôjsť k nekonkurenčnému správaniu a v konečnom dôsledku k ohrozeniu blahobytu spotrebiteľa.
V globalizovanej a liberalizovanej svetovej ekonomike firmy a priemyselná konkurencieschopnosť vyžadujú inovácie a flexibilitu, aby mohli prekonať problémy perma-nentne sa meniacich trhových podmienok a obstáť vo svetovej súťaži.
Neustály rozvoj produktu, technológií a organizácie môžu byť kľúčom k udržaniu konkurencieschopnosti v globalizovanej ekonomike.
Popri teoretickej časti analýzy konkurencieschopnosti je v príspevku aj empirická časť, týkajúca sa komparatívnej analýzy konkurencieschopnosti rozvojových krajín z pohľadu zahraničného obchodu vo vzťahu k rozvinutým krajinám. Táto časť identifikuje na základe ukazovateľov konkurencieschopnosti, ako napríklad RCA a IIT, aj úroveň konkurencieschopnosti skúmaných ekonomík vo svetovej súťaži.
Z tejto analýzy možno dedukovať, že rozvojové krajiny – aj vzhľadom na charakter a štruktúru ich ekonomík – v určitých komoditách niektorých skupín tovarov SITC, napríklad 0, 2, 3, 5 a 8, dosiahli porovnateľnú, ba dokonca v niektorých lepšiu úroveň konkurencieschopnosti ako rozvinuté krajiny. Na druhej strane sa však vo väčšine ostatných komodít, ba aj niektorých spomenutých skupín tovarov SITC, napríklad 0, 5, 6, 7, 8 a 9, prehĺbila priepasť medzi rozvojovými a rozvinutými krajinami.
Konečným a celkovým výsledkom teda je, že rozvojové krajiny zaznamenali slabšiu úroveň konkurencieschopnosti, aj pri zohľadnení citeľného pokroku ekonomiky niektorých, najmä novoindustrializovaných krajín vo vzťahu k rozvinutým krajinám.
Z tejto slabej pozície, v ktorej sa nachádzajú rozvojové krajiny, sa možno dostať, ale len stabilizovaním politickej situácie, vytvorením regionálnych integračných zoskupení, účasťou na procese globalizácie, z ktorého niet úniku, vytvorením priaznivých pod-mienok na vstup zahraničného kapitálu a podporou malých a stredných podnikov tak, aby mohli byť konkurencieschopné tak na domácich, ako aj na zahraničných trhoch.
The author in her paper points out at the importance and necessity of the export credit insurance within the process of supporting exports. The support of exports is implemented in various forms, namely by direct financing or re-financing through commercial banks, granting bank guarantees, as well as by discounted bills. Insurance activities contribute to the support of exports too either by the insurance against political or commercial risks or assurance aiming at the product competitiveness in foreign markets. Credit insurance helps just in this case, and influences therefore significantly export performance.
The paper characterises credit insurance systems. Depending on the historic and economic development there exist various insurance and financial schemes in individual countries, and various institution types operate within them. These institutions are either joint stock companies owned fully or partially by the state, or governmental agencies. There are no instructions telling what institutional solution is the best one; at the foundation of credit insurance company each country should respect its own conditions and exporters’ needs. Depending on the form that links export insurance and financing with the government support and what linkage exits between them one can in principle talk about the three institution types: eximbanks, credit insurance companies and the so called ”sui generis” institutions.
The author next defines the risks in credit insurance. In this context one classifies basically the risks into commercial and political ones. Commercial risks result from economical or financial situation of the foreign debtor, e. g. through substantiated insolvency (bankruptcy and adjustment) or by payment repulsion. The intensity of commercial risk impact is set by the two factors:
Political risks stem from political events and administrative measures in the country of domicile of the foreign debtor or in the third country and from the point of view of the foreign buyer or debtor are of ”force majeure” character (unpredictable circumstances, jurisdictional risks etc.). Classical political risk is for instance moratorium – the payment and transfer of the due bill to the exporter is not approved by the government by the due date, but only a part of the payoff is approved, eventually the government orders the postponement of the payment.
According to the type of insured risk one covers either short-term commercial risk or medium or long-term political risk. At liabilities exceeding one-year period one cannot exclude commercial risk either, and therefore this risk is covered usually at medium and long-term insurance as well. Sometimes is this risk labelled by one word as the territorial risk and insurance companies include into the insurance coverage also such events as for instance earthquake or another natural disaster, which causes liability unpaid.
Some insurance companies offer a combination of political and commercial risk also for short-term credits up to 1 year, offering the coverage of the so-called combined risk. There is a specific approach toward the insurance of investments that are not typically credit risk but are narrowly linked to the export activities of insured subjects.
The paper pays attention too to the comparison of credit insurance abroad.
The author further deals with the characteristics of the credit insurance market in Slovakia in consideration of a short-term commercial insurance and briefly assesses foreign trade development in the Slovak Republic since 1995 up to now. Relating to this analysis the author specifies the institutions that implement export credit insurance in the Slovak Republic. She briefly defines conditions for credit insurance against commercial risks. Export credits may have a form of supplier credit, which is granted by the exporter or buyer’s credit, where exporter’s bank or another financial institution grants credit to the buyer or his bank.
According to export contracts on credit one distinguishes further classification of insurance as short-term, medium-term and long-term insurance.
The insurance relates to export contracts implemented by corporate entity with a domicile or natural person with a permanent address on the territory of the Slovak Republic, the exporter is insured.
The insurance covers for the Slovak exporter commercial risks connected with claims settlement from abroad originated by substantiated or expected insolvency or by payment repulsion. This insurance can be extended by an additional insurance against political risks.
Credit insurance is implemented by general insurance contract and by the statement on granting credit limit for each foreign buyer at regularly repeated expeditions during a certain time period (for instance one year period).
Insurance premium amount is set depending on the country of the foreign buyer, delay of payment and the arrangement of supplies (revolving or one-time).
The author briefly suggests the territorial structure of the insured exports of the Slovak Republic and its commodity structure.
She compares Slovak subjects within the framework of the credit insurance, namely: Eximbank SR, Insurance Gerling Slovakia, j. s. c. and Allianz Insurance Company, j. s. c.
In the conclusion the paper suggests certain trends of credit insurance within the process of globalisation. The author states that at the support of exports, development and improvement of service aiming at higher competitiveness of Slovak exporters one should orientate oneself mainly at the improvement and insurance price reduction in various forms. She lists the following forms: increased insurance coverage extent, marked decrease of insurance rates, systematic introduction of bonus system and discounts in insurance rates for exporters, the possibility to pay insurance premium gradually, preferred credit insurance granted by commercial banks and utilisation of all forms of international co-operation including active reinsurance.
All cited measures mean some improvement of insurance, above all in insurance price reduction and thus improvement of competitiveness of exporters at achievement export contracts. It is important to mention that one has to respect the macro-economic and micro-economic possibilities of the country and competing environment in the market.
The author states that the concept of the strategic destination of Slovakia in the field of export credit insurance should be based on the measures providing more efficient activities of significantly higher quality backed by domestic legal system and currently used international habits. In any case the starting point for the definition of extent one should adhere to the rules accepted by the EU, OECD and WTO. These steps are also necessary while preparing Slovakia to enter the EU.
In this respect it is important to know that the export credit insurance against commercial risks is an inseparable part of the support of export performance of the economy. The role of the state within the framework of the foreign trade in market economy countries is based on the rule that state administration should not intervene into the foreign trade operations of individual entrepreneuring subjects, must however, provide optimum conditions for them – stimulating export friendly environment and must offer its exporters efficient export supporting policy.
The size, number and knowledge of today’ s financial markets is growing faster than ever before. Enormous growth in the demand for financial products, new ways of financing, penetration into new markets and newly automatized trading and payments systems that are applicable both internationally and nationally led to the extraordinarily quick development of financial markets, there are various measures against money laundering.
The first impulse for the creation of a co-ordinated international endeavour against money laundering came to its existence in the 1980s with the main emphasis to solve the distribution of drugs. In this context, the highest priority was given to the strategy aimed at dismantling the organization engaged in drug distribution nets, their administration and economic power.
The results so far reveal that every strategy against money laundering must, besides the utilization of traditional instruments of criminal law, embrace participants of the financial sector to the possibly large extent. From the two factors mentioned above, it implies that national initiatives against money laundering on themselves can not be sufficient given the fact in mind that one of the most important assumptions for the successful money laundering is the masking of evidence material and direction of financial flows.
The first great step, in this regard, was taken by the UN convention in Vienna in 1988, which characterized trading with narcotics materials as illegal. This significant instrument which has an international level and has been so far ratified by around 100 countries. This certainly had and has a tremendous impact on the future development of the fight against money laundering and should be taken by member countries as a minimum standard and should therefore be respected.
Despite the fact that the Vienna convention in 1988 was a very important first step, the other equally important step was taken by the Council of Europe, which signed the convention on money laundering in 1990. The objective was linked to searching and confiscation of the resources resulting from illegal activities. The expert commission, which proposed the convention to the Council of Europe, has from the very beginning agreed that the obligation of the convention be beyond the framework of the trade with drugs. Since 1990, there is a permanently growing effort to separate money laundering from trading with drugs, which is reflected in the adoption of legislation on the national level of member countries. For instance, while in 1992 only a handful of the 26 member countries of the FATF put on trial against money laundering, in 1993 already 10 countries adopted legislative measurement upon which money laundering coming from any serious criminal activity or a criminal activity that generates high profit to be considered as a criminal activity.
The above mentioned internal legislation development of member countries of the EU found its feedback also in the direction of EU in June 1990 on the prevention of using financial systems form money laundering purposes. The developments on national and international levels show the reality that the vast majority of analysts and officers in the state and legislative administration realizes that the political and practical disadvantages of a limited approach in dealing with money laundering. In a global context, most sophisticated methods of money laundering five a justification for international co-operation, which also allows a state to put on trial an individual for taking part in money laundering even if it took place outside of the home country.
One of the most important organizations in this regard is the special agent for financial operations (FATF). FATF has been established on the meeting of the head of states and governments of seven industrialized countries (G7) together with the president of the European Commission in July 1989 in Paris. From that on the number of member countries grew to 26 member countries of OECD, other countries with significant share in world finance, members of the European Commission and the Council for co-operation of the Gulf region. Thanks to its enormous contribution, the publication of the 40th proposal in the report in February 1990, FATF became the most important international organization from the viewpoint of policy formulation for the fight against money laundering and the mobilization of global knowledge in relation to the complexity of the problem in bringing down this sophisticated form of criminality.
In spite of this initiative it is necessary to say that the scale and methods of using the legislation and rules against money laundering is different from country to country. The rules against money laundering in some countries include only money earned from the activities related to illegal trade with drugs. Others are also related to other even more serious forms of criminal activities, that include financial criminal activities in their legislation measures on money laundering. Based on this, the preventive system that impacts on the bank may more or less be classified as follows:
In the other part of the article we analyse the systems of some economically developed states, which have established organs for the fight against money laundering: In the United States, there are six organizations operating under the umbrella of the ministry of interior that are dealing with financial criminal activity (FinCEN). The objective of FinCEN is mainly to gathering, analysing and disseminating information about financial criminal activities. In Great Britain, there is no clear system for information between financial institutions, which could create a uniform front for the fight against money laundering. A responsible individual who is employed in a financial institution may advance information regarding his knowledge or suspicion only under the framework of existing laws and he is not allowed to advance any information to his colleagues nor his acquaintances in other financial institutions. In Spain, the law 19/1993 states that all institutions, which are undertaking such transactions must identify not only their customers on time of the establishment the trade relationship but also all their customers, who wish to undertake a multiple transaction with the exception of transactions that have a specific nature by law. In Italy, the identification and evidence obligations must be fulfilled in the following cases:
In France, bases on the law No.90-614 on money laundering in June 12, 1990, financial institutions must identify all the bearers of an account before they opened the account or opportunistic clients, who demand whatever transactions that surpasses the amount 55 000 French Frank or who simply demand for the opening safety box.
In Slovakia the financial secret agent (FIU) was created in 1996 with the aim of gathering and processing the declaration regarding unusual trade transactions (until 31. December 2000 only with declaration of unusual banking operations). The main objective is to detect any potential money laundering activities and eventually transfering the matter to the police for proving, putting on trial or arresting. The Slovak FIU is the active member of the Egmont Group. Until the present date, FIU received more than 1 300 declaration of which 7 per cent was used for putting on trial.
In general, it is possible to conclude that regardless of the kind of system ratified by whichever country, there are common procedures and experiences: customer identification, respect for law, and co-operation with a repressing organs, gathering of evidences and the storage of registration in transaction and the training of the personnel for the simplification of processing and declaration of suspicious transactions that are in line with the law and regulations of the given country.
Fenomén podnikateľa sa bezosporu stal jedným zo základných objektov revízie neoklasickej alokačnej statiky v ekonomickej teórii od druhej polovice 20. storočia. Príčina-mi tejto zmeny boli predovšetkým dva rozhodujúce momenty vystupujúce pri rozvoji ekonómie ako vedy, ktorej protagonisti sa prirodzene usilovali o úplné osamostatnenie jej vlastnej metodológie, a zároveň o ukotvenie multidisciplinárnych prvkov vlastného systému (ktorých typickým príkladom je fenomén podnikania a podnikateľstva) do samoregulačnej dynamiky ekonómie ako celku.
Tým prvým momentom je extrémne úsilie vynakladané na konzistentné (pre)definovanie podnikateľa ako ekonomického faktora, ktorého aktivita, jej konkrétne formy, intenzita a výsledky vedú za rámcovo definovaných základných podmienok ”štandardnej” neoklasickej mechaniky alokácie zdrojov k nastoleniu rovnováhy, alebo k jej narušeniu v predikovateľnom smere. Takýto zámer o skompletizovanie systému ekonómie ako samostatnej vedy sa, napokon, zreteľne prejavuje už ako základný cieľ neskorších prác J. A. Schumpetera (od roku 1934).
Druhým rozhodujúcim momentom, prirodzene rezultujúcim z rozpačitých výsledkov snaženia o vyriešenie práve uvedeného prvého, je poziciovanie podnikateľa a podnika-teľstva ako jedného z dvoch centrálnych fenomenologických objektov (novej) inštitucionálnej ekonómie v jej rozličných smeroch. Nepochybne do tohto nezvykle diferencovaného a heterogénneho komplexu, poznačeného predimenzovaným úsilím o presadenie autoritatívnej novej paradigmy, patria také smery, ako napríklad rekvalifikovanie behaviorálnych a agentských teórií formy, (nová) ekonómia vlastníckych práv, ekonómia transakčných nákladov, ekonómia práva, inštitucionálno-evolučná ekonómia, teória tzv. neproduktívne vynakladaných ekonomických zdrojov – neskôr teória rent-seekingu atď. Pri všetkej divergencii tohto vývoja tu zohrali, a naďalej zohrávajú fundamentálnu úlohu dva zásadné príspevky – základné postuláty dynamiky firmy (a teda podnikateľstva ako takého) ako internalizácie transakčných nákladov medzi jednotlivými faktormi jej existencie a persistencie Ronalda Coaseho (1937) a koncept X – neefektívnosti Harveyho Leibensteina (1966). Oba predstavujú základ prekonania neoklasickej mechaniky spolupôsobenia jednotlivých výrobných faktorov a labilného prepojenia rovnováhy na mikro- a makroúrovni.
Tento príspevok, rešpektujúc, a zároveň reflektujúc uvedené systémové súvislosti, ponúka osobitnú reflexiu zložitej a nejednoznačnej problematiky endogenizácie fenoménov podnikateľa a podnikateľstva v komplexe ekonómie ako samostatnej sociálnej vedy. Keďže zjednodušený alokačno-distribučný koncept neoklasickej ekonómie, dynamiky a statickej rovnováhy trhu je, napriek všetkým naznačeným ideovým inováciám, stále jasne dominujúcou paradigmou schematického vnímania a analyzovania hospodárskych procesov, autor dôsledne konfrontuje tradičnú schému jej vývoja a zmien v 20. storočí vo vzťahu k faktoru podnikateľstva. Predstavuje koncepcie permanentnej deštrukcie rovnováhy v trhovej ekonomike ako základnej funkcie podnikania a inovácií (J. A. Schumpeter, 1934), von Misesovu (1949) praxeologickú alternatívu Robbinsovej ortodoxnej neoklasickej metodológie, hodnotovo neutrálnu a rovnováhu znovanastoľujúcu koncepciu podnikateľa I. Kirznera (1973), Schultzov generálny prístup k podnikateľ-stvu ako k modálnej vlastnosti ľudského kapitálu všeobecne (1975), Leibensteinovu koncepciu X – neefektívnosti (1966), ako i pokus o novú klasifikáciu produktívneho, neproduktívneho a deštruktívneho podnikateľstva W. Baumola (1990), uskutočnený v snahe o systemizáciu interdependencií jednotlivých prúdov (novej) inštitucionálnej ekonómie v ich vzťahu k všeobecnej ekonomickej teórii.
V nadväznosti na tento prehľad autor v časti Obsolete Business Economics opätovne identifikuje vnútornú neschopnosť neoklasickej newtoniánskej mechaniky analýzy vývoja hospodárskeho pohybu formalizovať dynamiku podnikateľa a podnikateľstva v komplexe ekonómie, pričom tu zároveň poskytuje zaujímavý evolučno-faktorový model. V závere zdôrazňuje nedostatočnosť povrchnej hypotézy o samorovnovážnej transformačnej stratégii, založenej len na vytvorení nominatívnych absolutizovane poziciovaných vlastníckych vzťahov, a zdôrazňuje faktor neefektívnosti manažmentu ekonomických aktív ako základnú príčinu nedostatočnej kreatívnej endogenity podnikania a podnikateľstva v trazitívnych ekonomikách a spoločnostiach.
The main topic of most financial theories is modelling of return-risk compromise in investments decision. One of the most famous financial theories is CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) discovered by William Sharpe (1963). Its main idea is modelling of return-risk relation among a particular stock, market portfolio and a risk-free asset. The CAPM is used to evaluate the stock risk.
The CAPM is given by the equation
(.) – an expectation operator,
There are some objections against this model. A variety of statistical empirical tests discovered a systematic error in the model. The neglecting of the dividend taxing is criticised by Brennan (1970) and Long (1977). It was discovered that the returns in January are higher than in the other moths and it is called the January effect (Keim (1983)). The original CAPM does not take into account the influence of joint stock company size later researched by Fama and French (1992). The objections led to the modifications of CAPM (for example modifications of Merton, Brennan, Rubinstein, Breeden).
Usually the monthly time series with many observations is applied for quantification of CAPM. Despite of the above-mentioned fact it is impossible to use the longer series in Slovak conditions due to the financial instability of Slovak firms, frequent legislative changes in the capital market and non-standard privatisation of Slovak stock companies. In order to avoid this systematic error in time series an alternative approach is proposed in the article. The problem of an appropriate time series length based on daily returns is investigated and its seasonal behaviour is also researched.
We used the database of RM System from the period January 1994 – April 1995. At first, we analysed the daily data and we found their seasonal structure given by the traditional Monday effect. The Friday effect was not statistically significant but on Thursdays the prices were moving according to Friday effect. We assumed that this character of seasonality would influence the estimations of beta coefficients in CAPM.
We chose 5 joint stock companies which shares amounted large turnover of stock exchange during that period. We compared the results of CAPM quantification based on daily and weekly returns. We found out that weekly returns were more appropriate for this quantification.
Due to the seasonal effect research we had to formulate a particular CAPM for each day in week separately. Then, the results were mutually compared. Finally, we concluded that there were not significant differences between betas computed in each day of the week. The differences between beta coefficients were not statistically significant and formulation of seasonal CAPM for each day in the week has no importance. According to our results we can reject using of daily returns and substitute it by weekly returns by quantification of beta where the separate parameters estimation performed according to day of the week is not necessary. The similar conclusion is presented also by Goppl, Schlag, Ludecke and Schutz (2000).
Agent-based simulation reports a project in agents-based computer simulation of processes of economics in a population of boundedly rational learning agents. The same family of economics models will be simulated under different assumptions about the nature of the learning process and details of the production and employment process. The purpose of this procedure is to establish a relationship between the assumptions and the simulation results.
The simulation techniques with baseline simulations of boundedly rational learning processes that do not involve the complications of dealing with long-run economic growth.
Can simulation ”explain” the puzzles of economic growth and particularly the key puzzle of growth and learning processes that produce the puzzling results? And just what assumptions of the simulation are not predictable associated with puzzling results?
We have modelled more and more as interactions between agent and the environment or between different agents the emergence of beliefs as well as the specific type of informational treatment traditionally called ”rationality”. Modelling beliefs has become a specific field of decision making, particularly respect to probability events.
Rational decision making has also been generalized in order to encompass, in new ways and in more general situations that it used to be fitted to, multiple dimension in consequences.
The difficult question to incorporate several of these recent advances simultaneously and it offers trends of modelling such complex economics systems and deals with extensions of the economic theory. Specific elements in the development of interactions between agents and their environment and confronts real-world problem in both financial and non-financial and decisions, and tries to show what kind of contribution can be brought to them by the type of modelling reported on here.
Many agent-based systems rely for their effectiveness on the individual agents, among interaction agents is required to co-ordinate these individually complex decision. An agent may take an effort a set of efforts and the output will depends on the random state of nature. The output will rise stochastically as the level of forts increases and the state of nature improves additional information is valuable because it allows a more accurate judgement of performance of the agent. Typical problems is multi-agents case can also offer opportunities for inference of hidden action and agent monitoring agent. Multi-agents require a hierarchical organization to co-ordinate tasks and monitoring agents’ input and information costs can be reduced and productivity improves.
Because of the limited space this paper cannot present the whole complex and contradictory process of the preparation of economic reform in Czechoslovakia in the middle of the sixties. Thus the author concentrated himself only at some partial segments in the formation process of the new economic reform. Those interested in this problem are directed by notes to further studies dealing with other aspects of this process.
In the first part of the paper one indicates some most important causes that made the leaders of the Czechoslovak state to consider needful changes in the economic mechanism of the socialist state. This mechanism was based until then on the orthodox acceptance of the fundamental theses of the Stalinist political economy.
The exigency of economic reform was evident not only because of the magnitude of economic crisis that took place at the beginning of the sixties, but also due to the inability of the Party’s machinery to understand a explain its real roots and causes using dogmas and theorems valid then. The paper then presents the most important theses on the reform preparation in the governmental centre and discusses the document The Proposal of Theses on the Improvement of the System of Planned Management of the National Economy, which formed the basis at the establishment of the ”new management system”. In the next part one more tangibly presents the analysis of the management system in the Czechoslovak national economy, which originated in 1963 and formed a part of the cited document. According to the document the economy management system was capable for a certain time period to ensure the so-called extensive development of the economy. It could not, however, be utilised under the new conditions expecting mainly intensive economy growth, exploiting all development reserves, fast labour productivity growth, at the same time, however, meeting the needs of society on the much higher level.
Further, much more extensive analysis of the situation in the Czechoslovak national economy and its development tendencies was prepared in the year 1965 in the State Planning Commission in Prague with the co-operation of some other institutions. The authors of that analysis realised, however, that the economy crisis in Czechoslovakia at the beginning of the sixties and the debacle of the third five-year plan were more profound. In spite of the fact that during the second five-year plan (second half of the fifties) a series of important achievements in the development of national economy was reached, at the same time, however, extensive development forms continued to strengthen. That happened just at the time when industrially developed countries started to implement important progressive structural processes, and increasingly applied latest science and technology results directly in the production process. The incapability to discover the need to rectify the Czechoslovak national economy just in this way led to the failure of the third five-year plan in Czechoslovakia.
A certain image of the situation of the Slovak industry in the middle of the sixties when thousands of labourers from Slovakia found their jobs in Czech regions can be found based on the analysis prepared in 1967 by the Institute of Economics of the Slovak Academy of Sciences.
The analysis was ordered by the Slovak National Council Presidium and should have dealt with the impacts of some particular measures of the economic reform (mainly with the general reconstruction of wholesale prices) on the Slovak national economy. In its conclusion this analysis stated that ”Slovakia in industrial employment and industrial production is lagging behind the nation-wide employment and production, and above all is strongly behind the level of Czech regions in these indicators”. From the point of view of the regional structure of industrial production one pointed out at its dissipation, whereas there existed only one industrial agglomeration – Bratislava.
The authors of the analysis understood at the same time the overall structural weakness of the Slovak industry also as a result of the socialist industrialisation of Slovakia then implemented. At the same time the consistently applied principle of management by sectors caused the underestimation of demands for rational territorial organisation of economic activities. One-sided understanding and implementation of the uniform Czechoslovak economy concept did not allow such development of the Slovak economy that should have been based on establishment of territorial and sector complexes that could enable Slovak enterprises their growth up to the optimum size.
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