Electronic Library of Scientific Literature - © Academic Electronic Press
Volume 51 / No. 9 / 2003
CONTENTS
Fundamental Economic Reform – the Tool of Resolution of the Financial Crises in the South East Asia (in Slovak) 1045Viliam PÁLENÍK – Vladimír KVETAN – Jana HRIVNÁKOVÁ – Ján ĎURÁŠ:
Book Reviews
HUŠEK, Roman – PELIKÁN, Jan: Applied Econometrics: Theory and Practice – J. Husár (in Slovak) 1174
BEŇOVÁ, Elena a kol.: Finances and Currency – J. Sokira (in Slovak) 1179
Peter BALÁŽ – Martin LÍNER
The paper analyzes the economic development in certain South
East Asian countries hit in 1997 by the most extensive financial crises in the
recent history of this subcontinent. Beyond this, there is yet no unanimity
about its root causes nor about the solutions. The dif-ferences of views are
being debated in academic circles, by experts (especially of IMF and World
Bank), economists and reflected in media. It focuses on the evaluation of the
re-form process, particularly in South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and
the Philippines.
The authors assess the fruitfulness of the adjustment measures in respective
countries, especially regarding the operations of financial institutions, banks
and corporate sector. They point out some success stories in the field of
non-performing loans, bank capital adequacy, banks’ consolidation and creation
of special institutional networks to solve accumulated problems.
The financial crisis has been transformed to a full-blown recession in the real
econo-my of production. The influence of the recession on the selected branches
was very different a different was the success by the restoration of its
economic growth.
Regarding the restructuring of the corporate sector the emphasis is put on the
issues of indebtedness and insolvency and the changes of corporate management
while presenting achieved results country by country. Furthermore, they target
the field of sharehol-ders’ protection, the bankruptcy provisions and the
changes in accounting and audit. Analyzed results have proved that countries hit
by the crises managed to start an upward growth-trend after five years since the
crises, however, this trend does not show the evidence of a permanent stability,
it seems to be its objective presumption. The continuation of this process will
depend on the positive changes in the global economy, especially in NAFTA and
European Union region.
Most of recession-strickend business areas in Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia were
trans-formed through the special system of economic agencies (managing by the
governance struc-ture). In the year 2003 should be finished its activity (except
Indonesia) because of recycling of the domestic economies, which should be able
to continue in its economic development.
Renáta VOKOROKOSOVÁ – Štefan ČARNICKÝ
Slovak foreign trade deficit pace is being closely associated
with the development of its macroeconomic indicators – economic growth,
structure of aggregate demand, and unemployment rate. Persistent deterioration
of Slovak trade course is said to be the result of lower effectiveness of the
hitherto economy restructuralisation. Its running is so far dedicated to keeping
the Slovak trade competitiveness by way of cost competition exploitation (low
wages, simple less sophisticated products). There is also an insufficient rate
of foreign investment as improving the industry restructuralisation, putting up
the productivity and profitability of sophisticated production. An appreciable
part is still being specialised in simpler steps of production processes as
connected with intensive exporting and importing activities. Slovak export
commodity structure is remarkable for its low values added and increased
importing requirements being reflected in the dete-rioration of terms of trade
and finally trades balance. Our production structure is still raw and material
abundant. The low effectiveness of supply side of our economy has its reflection
also in the proexporting capabilities.
Slovak business entities are able due to the low flexibility and quality of sub
delivery system and insufficient technological basis of our production to cope
with their increased exporting demands mainly with enhancing importing.
There are different approaches to the definition of competitive advantage. Very
often it is considered to be a certain combination of comparative advantages and
prevailing market failures. Competitiveness of a country can be perceived as an
ability to produce and sell products on the world market with the aim to achieve
a certain level of return of factors of production. Those are finally being
compared with possible benefits earned at exploitation of factors of production
to alternative activities. The present research of comparative and competitive
advantages is based upon the usage of statistical methods for assessing the
revealed comparative advantages. Successful country's position under the severe
competition depends on the effectiveness of its trading activities towards the
rest of the world. Authors of the complex index of revealed competitive
advantages are Vollrath and Vo, while Balassa developed the index of revealed
comparative advantages. The present theory of competitiveness is based on the
application of a great variety of indices, e. g. DRC – Domestic Resource
Costs, NSP – Net Social Profitability, or Michaely index and CTB –
Contribution to the Trade Balance.
This article highlights the diagnosis of selected commodity structures being
observed by RCA, CTB and Michaely indices with a corresponding theoretical
inquiry into the present state of the theory of competitiveness. However, we put
our attention just for selected postulates from their vast hierarchy reflecting
the topic most complex.
Viliam PÁLENÍK – Vladimír KVETAN – Jana HRIVNÁKOVÁ – Ján ĎURÁŠ
Considering the substantial differences between the discussed
scenarios of future development of Slovak macroeconomic indicators, we assume
the per capita gross domestic product in purchasing power parity a crucial
parameter ranking the progress of aimed-at achievement of economic performance
of the EU average.
Taking the approximate calculations in a constant PPP into account, it is
possible to stretch the prognosis horizon from 2010 onwards to estimate the time
SR needs to achieve the EU average. The results of such extrapolation are
presented in Table 1.
According to the non-entering reference scenario presuming continuation of the
heretofore development, SR would achieve the economic standard of the average
EU-15 member state in 2040 (Approximate calculations based on the constant 2010
PPP and 2 per cent real per capita GDP EU-15 growth rate presumptions). In the
entering pessimistic scenario, the EU-15 average would be attained in 2035 and
in the entering optimistic scenario it would be reached already in 2031. In the
case of SR terminating the admission process, the date of achieving the economic
standard of average EU-15 member state would amount to 2058.
T a b l e 1
The Year of Achieving the Economic Standard of EU-15, resp. EU-25 Average
Scenario |
EU-15 2002 Average = 100 |
EU-15 |
EU-25 Average = 100 |
|||||||
60 % |
75 % |
100 % |
60 % |
75 % |
100 % |
60 % |
75 % |
100 % |
||
Reference |
Year |
2004 |
2008 |
2015 |
2009 |
2022 |
2040 |
2002 |
2016 |
2036 |
Entering |
Year |
2004 |
2008 |
2014 |
2008 |
2018 |
2031 |
2002 |
2013 |
2027 |
optimistic |
Difference* |
0 |
0 |
–1 |
–1 |
–4 |
–9 |
0 |
–3 |
–9 |
Entering |
Year |
2004 |
2008 |
2014 |
2009 |
2020 |
2035 |
2002 |
2015 |
2031 |
pessimistic |
Difference* |
0 |
0 |
–1 |
0 |
–2 |
–5 |
0 |
–1 |
–5 |
Non-entering |
Year |
2004 |
2009 |
2017 |
2011 |
2031 |
2058 |
2002 |
2023 |
2058 |
catastrophic |
Difference* |
0 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
9 |
18 |
0 |
7 |
22 |
* Deviation from the reference scenario, in years.
Due to the current political and economic situation, it is reasonable to consider the entering optimistic scenario the most probable route of future Slovak economic develop-ment. As a consequence of successful EU admission, the growth rate of Slovak GDP would yearly increase by nearly 1 percentage point additionnally compared to the reference scenario. Such a positive dynamics of GDP would create an encouraging environment enabling Slovak Republic to achieve the average EU-25 economic standard in 2027. Besides, the criterion of 75 per cent of enlarged EU-25 average economic performance would be met in 2013 by the Slovak Republic.
Jaroslav NĚMEC
The article opens with a statement on the long
lasting propensity of the Slovak econo-my to deficit in the balance of trade and
balance of payments in the foreign trade. The author does not accept that this
propensity might be caused by preferences of home consumers to the imported
goods, or simply by lagging imports behind the exports. He does not deny the
growing demand for imported goods and increase in the foreign trade share on the
home market. However, he considers it as a fact which is inevitably
connected with integrating every economy in the world trade and principally it
is impossible to resist it. However, since import in every country depends on
sources gained by exporting own goods and services, the import cannot grow
independently from export. This dependence does not either allow to indicate
lagging exports to be the cause of breaking the foreign trade balance.
The imports can for a longer time and in greater extend exceed exports only
in case when there appear on the side of home demand purchasing means gained
other way than by export of home goods and services. It takes into account that
in every national economy there exist savings as available funds which do not
enter the flow of goods imme-diately after gaining them (after sale), and these
funds may – under certain circumstances – evoke deviations in sales,
including purchase of imported goods and services. This happens usually when an
unfavourable price, boom or monetary development is expected. Use of these means
in a greater than usual volume may bring about a temporary deviation,
but hardly to set up any longer tendency. Such a tendency presumes a lasting
need and a lasting inflow of these means. However, the existence of available
funds, among which the author includes besides credits also privatization
proceeds, “tunnelling” and similar channels, does not explain the growing
need of additional sources (mostly foreign ones). This need manifests itself
year by year through a growing pressure on the level of firms, state and
public institutions, whereat deficits of all these subjects are apparently
growing. For the time being the foreign means used did not result in such an
acceleration of creating own sources which would at least moderate the need of
foreign sources. This could not prevent exerting impact on relations of foreign
trade and on currency development.
The need of explaining the reasons for chronic propensity of foreign trade in
the Slovak Republic to advanced imports over exports led the author to question
the source of the enormous demand for foreign sources in our country. Why the
Slovak economy and other actors participating in the foreign trade have such an
extraordinary need of new and new credits till the above level exceeding up to
now the possibilities of paying them continuously?
The reason has been found inside the economy. The author finds out that as early
as since the 90’s the sources produced do not cover consumption of the fixed,
but neither of the circulating capital in the firms and the taxes together with
other state receipts the public consumption. Deficit in sources has gradually
been and is being transferred in all other parts and has been manifested/is
manifested most expressively in growing debts.
The total of debts, presented in the article by data of official statistics,
documents the volume of means required for settlement of consumption over the
individual years which could not be covered from own sources. All debts, may
they originate in whatever reasons, must by paid through formation of sources in
this country. A turn in the situation depends on the success as to how much
could the formation of sources be accelerated or how much reduced the
consumption down to the level of home formation of sources. Unless this happens,
the need of foreign sources will continue, and their use either for capital
recovery, public consumption settlement (state budget deficits) or final
consumption, will reflect finally in the foreign trade balance. Its deficit will
grow always whenever consumption in the country and paying the debts exceeds the
hitherto total coverage by sources (own and foreign ones). It will be moderated
by accelerating own formation of sources and/or by reducing total consumption in
the country.
Changes in the amount of foreign trade deficit have reflected up to now in the
Slovak Republic also on the currency development (the exchange rate of the crown
for main convertible currencies). However, the foreign trade balance impacted
the exchange rate of the crown also because of some further factors. Over the
last year stabilization of the crown was significantly influenced by
extraordinary privatization proceeds, by inflow of foreign investments and also
by several restrictive measures which resulted in slowing down the demand for
imported products. However, all this does not throw doubts on the conclusions
arrived at by the author’s analysis of relations between imbalanced state of
the Slovak economy and foreign trade development up to now.
Peter MARKOVIČ
Harmonization of Slovak legislation for the conditions of the
European Union brings a longs full variety of changes in understanding some
economical and financial categories. One of them is the process of
objectivisation the value of assets and liabilities for actual value, i. e.
determining the fair value. Intro-financial theory there were presented many
times the approaches, which can quantify relatively exactly and with the
sufficient time advance the change of value of shares, bonds, event. Other kinds
of securities under the thumb of change of some market variable. But
implementation of these approaches requires the research of background,
accessibility of qualitative and certain information, but also the adequate
knowledge base about the crucial factors of success. The situation obtaining on
out financial market doesn’t enable full utilization of all methods and
techniques of evaluation the financial instruments. But there is need of
positive appreciation of the consistent improvement, mainly in the area of the
information flow between companies and the subjects of the economical
background.
Fair value of the financial instrument complexly deposes about sense of the
entity, actual and potential effects brought by its holding. Subjectivity of
understanding of benefits of the financial instrument can guide the evaluator
(expert, accountant, auditor, financial analytic) to different conclusions. In
favour of maintenance of objection and continuity in evaluation there is
recommended using the generally accepted methods based on fair value of the
financial instrument, estimation using the specific valuation model (e. g.
with evaluation of the derivate contracts), in excessive case coming out the
historical value.
Final interpretation of the acquired results must overshoot in context of
entered input values, by which is eliminated the influence of consecutive change
of the market variab-les to the fair value of the financial instrument. It is
recommended for evaluator, in behalf of the demonstrativeness of the accounted
fair values, to define exactly conditions, which determined his opinion.
Jana ŠNIRCOVÁ
The analyses of both external and internal environment of
Slovak business sector have led us to the following result: the business
conditions as well as the firms’ economic efficiency cause very different
level of financial ratios of the Slovak firms compared to their level in the
firms operating in the standard market environment. That’s why it is not
possible to expect the comparable results in the incomparable conditions.
The results of the realized analysis document that – in spite of the fact that
both economic environment and firms results as well are not standard – it is
possible to identify the differences of certain financial ratios level in the
compared groups. In the sense of the prediction methodics these indicators
represents potential indicators of the Slovak firms’ financial health. The
analysis based on quantiles has shown the expressive distinction of these
indicators as well as the stability of differences in time.
From the methodological point of view our analysis resulted in the knowledge
that it is possible to create the prediction models with the adequate
reliability. That means we are able to identify the Slovak firms financial
health indicators. These indicators are not identical with the ones used in the
foreign models. At the same time we realize that our research represents only a first
step in the prediction models creation. However, the identification of the
financial health indicators is the important starting point for both the
approaches used in Slovak economy for their creation – empirical as well as
mathematic and statistical (mainly by means of the discriminatory analysis). We
can not forget more and more deepening trends taking into account the
nonfinancial and nonquantifiable factors for the Slovak firms’ financial
health evaluation (i. e. the innovative potential or management quality).
To ensure informatically the prediction models creation, i.e. to obtain the
informative and examining sample of firms we recommend to concentrate on the
representative database administrated by the DataCenter (Slovak Rating Agency
and INFIN). The possibi-lity of an annual actualization of models (solving the
possible influence of expected fundamental changes of Slovak economic
environment), completing of the built financial analysis system of Slovak
business subjects as well as the extension of their application into both bank
and non-bank sectors are considered as undoubted advantages of the mentioned
institutional and organizational assurance proposal of the Slovak prediction
mo-dels creation. The conception of the electronic register of financial
statements published in accordance with the Commercial Code would help the
creation of the informational base for the realization of the mentioned
analysis.
Dagmar LESÁKOVÁ
The paper aimed at problems in marketing research and marketing curricula deve-lopment, especially as a result of information technologies progress. Four areas have been stressed:
· implications of the shift towards database marketing;
· consequences of the changes in the nature and methods of marketing research;
· links between relationship marketing, one-to-one marketing and CRM concept;
· social responsibility of the “new marketing era”.
It has focused on new development trends in assessing and
implementing marketing data within the strategic and tactical marketing
concepts. Data driven marketing requires from marketing education to equip
graduates with serious skills in data mining, quantitative research methods and
statistics. However, this cannot be understood as a substitute for understanding
the insight processes and the value systems.
On the other hand, “old fashioned” understanding of customers, in the sense
of understanding the behavioural underpinning and the value and nature of
qualitative research is extremely important in providing marketers with the
substantive skills that should again help to dispel the development of the core
of marketing theory.
An additional problem is that there is sometimes a tendency to measure what is
easy to measure, rather than what is insightful, for example measures of
customer satisfaction, or customer loyalty. The root of the problem seems to be
little evidence of consideration by marketing managers as to the complexity and
multifaceted nature of many marketing phenomena and hence not clear vision of
what should be researched.
We explore the nature of strategic marketing in terms of a more expansive
domain. The development of networks, partnerships, alliances etc. requires
broader marketing curricula and marketing research that go beyond the
traditional marketing knowledge and isolated marketing function.
The shift of power to customers has created the need of deep knowledge in
organisational behaviour and implications of being “managed by customers”
rather than managing customers.
This paper, it must be emphasised, does not claim to be the last word on present
marketing curricula. Nevertheless, it does try to raise a number of significant
topics, which warrant carefull consideration – especially in these times of
new millenium.
Hardly someone would not accept the contention that marketing is essencially an
applied discipline and therefore borrowing from and searching for methods in
other disciplines (such as sociology, psychology, semiotics, statistics, etc.)
can not be avoided. On the other hand – if the discipline has to move forward
– it has to look for appropriate application of these methods and complexity
in delivering solutions.
Marketing should consist of a process of activities that leads to the delivery
of superior value to the customer. From this point of view a change in
traditional understanding of 4P’s/marketing communications driven marketing
departments can be advocated. In this sense, marketers become facilitators of
customer orientated practice within the firm.
Anna HARUMOVÁ
There is a need to stress out a selective approach when
evaluating claims. Each business case represents a specific operation from which
a claim is developed. An important role also plays an economic information about
creditor which are necessary for claim evaluation. A problem is in accessibility
of that information which is sometimes very low.
Very important aspect when evaluating claim is a time viewpoint. The time
viewpoint represents the reality that claims are recorded in accounting it their
nominal value. The majority of claims have character of trade-loan claims and
each subscriber pays his/her claim after some time period. The later the claim
is paid after its payment period, the lower is its value.
The main duty of each creditor is to pay his/her claims on time, because of
large amount of company’s money that those claims carry. The value of claims
is always connected with the state of the creditor. That is why there is an
importance of creditor’s financial analysis first when we want to analyze
claims. If a claim is not paid on time it can either decrease or increase its
value.
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