In: Sociológia - Slovak Sociological Review, vol. 45, no. 5
Pavel Maškarinec
Details:
Year, pages: 2013, 435 - 469
Keywords:
Key words: Czech Republic; presidential elections; spatial analysis; spatial autocorre¬lation; Moran’s I statistic; LISA; spatial regression
Article type: štúdia / study
About article:
Spatial Analysis of the 2013 Czech Presidential Elections. This article presents an analysis of the 2013 Czech presidential elections from the spatial analysis perspective. The main method applied for classifying the electoral results were spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression which play an important role in spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. First, the regionalisation of the presidential vote is measured to identify the specific regional clusters of votes; the global test (a Moran’s I statistic), and also local indicators of spatial association (a LISA statistic) are used. Secondly, the spatial regression is used to identify the key underlying factors explaining the spatial variation of the electoral results. The analysis proves an independent effect in the case of Morava macro-region for the territorial differences in voting decisions in the presidential elections, in contrast to the Czech parliamentary elections. On the other hand, in the case of the second analysed macro-region (formerly German-inhabited Sudetenland) no such independent effect is evident. Finally, after controlling for the impact of the spatial regimes, the independent effect of non-spatial indicators is analysed. The findings suggest that other factors, with independent effects to the electoral results, was largely easily interpretable. Their effect was largely similar to the impact of these indicators, which previous studies reported in the parliamentary elections, reflecting not only support of the strongest Czech political parties, but also, to a certain extent, the current form of the Czech party system cleavage structures.
Sociológia 2013, Vol. 45, (No. 5: 435-469)
Spatial Analysis of the 2013 Czech Presidential Elections. This article presents an analysis of the 2013 Czech presidential elections from the spatial analysis perspective. The main method applied for classifying the electoral results were spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression which play an important role in spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. First, the regionalisation of the presidential vote is measured to identify the specific regional clusters of votes; the global test (a Moran’s I statistic), and also local indicators of spatial association (a LISA statistic) are used. Secondly, the spatial regression is used to identify the key underlying factors explaining the spatial variation of the electoral results. The analysis proves an independent effect in the case of Morava macro-region for the territorial differences in voting decisions in the presidential elections, in contrast to the Czech parliamentary elections. On the other hand, in the case of the second analysed macro-region (formerly German-inhabited Sudetenland) no such independent effect is evident. Finally, after controlling for the impact of the spatial regimes, the independent effect of non-spatial indicators is analysed. The findings suggest that other factors, with independent effects to the electoral results, was largely easily interpretable. Their effect was largely similar to the impact of these indicators, which previous studies reported in the parliamentary elections, reflecting not only support of the strongest Czech political parties, but also, to a certain extent, the current form of the Czech party system cleavage structures.
Sociológia 2013, Vol. 45, (No. 5: 435-469)
How to cite:
ISO 690:
Maškarinec, P. 2013. Prostorová analýza prezidentských voleb v České republice v roce 2013. In Sociológia - Slovak Sociological Review, vol. 45, no.5, pp. 435-469. 0049-1225.
APA:
Maškarinec, P. (2013). Prostorová analýza prezidentských voleb v České republice v roce 2013. Sociológia - Slovak Sociological Review, 45(5), 435-469. 0049-1225.