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Changes in the 100-year flood at the Danube River in Bratislava due to the expected climate change

In: Acta Hydrologica Slovaca, vol. 18, no. 2
Ladislav Gaál - Danica Lešková - Eva Kopáčiková
Detaily:
Rok, strany: 2017, 154 - 164
Kľúčové slová:
Danube, 100-year flood, frequency analysis, climate change, SWICCA
URL originálneho zdroja: http://www.ih.sav.sk/ah
O článku:
The paper aims at assessing changes in the 100-year flood that are expected to occur during the 21st century due to climate change, in the light of similar estimates derived from observed data (1984–2014). For the future (2015–2100), a number of simulated time series of river discharge from the SWICCA database are used, which represent combined outputs of 3 hydrological models and 11 regional climate models. The target location is the Danube River in Bratislava, Slovakia. The case study is an at-site and stationary frequency analysis where data samples are derived using the block maxima approach, and flood quantiles are modeled by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. In case there is a significant linear trend in the data samples, the non-stationary approach is adopted with a time-dependent location parameter of the GEV distribution. Flood quantiles and their confidence intervals are numerically estimated on the basis of the Differential Evolution Markov Chain approach. The multitude of model outcomes (that represent different greenhouse gas emission scenarios) from the SWICCA database is an excellent basis to get the first sight on the possible range of expected changes in the 100-year flood, with no need to run complex hydrological models locally.
Ako citovať:
ISO 690:
Gaál, L., Lešková, D., Kopáčiková, E. 2017. Changes in the 100-year flood at the Danube River in Bratislava due to the expected climate change. In Acta Hydrologica Slovaca, vol. 18, no.2, pp. 154-164. 2644-4690.

APA:
Gaál, L., Lešková, D., Kopáčiková, E. (2017). Changes in the 100-year flood at the Danube River in Bratislava due to the expected climate change. Acta Hydrologica Slovaca, 18(2), 154-164. 2644-4690.