In: Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, vol. 65, no. 2
Milan Stojković - Jasna Plavšić - Stevan Prohaska
Detaily:
Rok, strany: 2017, 165 - 174
Kľúčové slová:
Stochastic modelling; Annual and seasonal hydrological predictions; TIPS method; The middle Danube
River basin.
URL originálneho zdroja: http://www.ih.sav.sk/jhh
O článku:
The short-term predictions of annual and seasonal discharge derived by a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency,
Periodicity and Stochasticity) methodology are presented in this paper. The TIPS method (Yevjevich, 1984) is
modified in such a way that annual time scale is used instead of daily. The reason of extracting a seasonal component
from discharge time series represents an attempt to identify the long-term stochastic behaviour. The methodology is applied
for modelling annual discharges at six gauging stations in the middle Danube River basin using the observed data
in the common period from 1931 to 2012. The model performance measures suggest that the modelled time series are
matched reasonably well. The model is then used for the short-time predictions for three annual step ahead (2013–2015).
The annual discharge predictions of larger river basins for moderate hydrological conditions show reasonable matching
with records expressed as the relative error from –8% to +3%. Irrespective of this, wet and dry periods for the aforementioned
river basins show significant departures from annual observations. Also, the smaller river basins display greater
deviations up to 26% of the observed annual discharges, whereas the accuracy of annual predictions do not strictly depend
on the prevailing hydrological conditions.
Ako citovať:
ISO 690:
Stojković, M., Plavšić, J., Prohaska, S. 2017. Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin
based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity,
Stochasticity) methodology. In Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, vol. 65, no.2, pp. 165-174. 0042-790X (until 2019) .
APA:
Stojković, M., Plavšić, J., Prohaska, S. (2017). Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin
based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity,
Stochasticity) methodology. Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics, 65(2), 165-174. 0042-790X (until 2019) .