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Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

In: Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, vol. 45, no. 3
Kamila Hlavčová - Milan Lapin - Peter Valent - Ján Szolgay - Silvia Kohnová - Peter Rončák
Detaily:
Rok, strany: 2015, 173 - 192
Kľúčové slová:
Extreme 5-day precipitation totals, climate change scenarios, rainfall-runoff modelling, extreme floods
O článku:
In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981–2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

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Ako citovať:
ISO 690:
Hlavčová, K., Lapin, M., Valent, P., Szolgay, J., Kohnová, S., Rončák, P. 2015. Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods. In Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, vol. 45, no.3, pp. 173-192. 1338-0540.

APA:
Hlavčová, K., Lapin, M., Valent, P., Szolgay, J., Kohnová, S., Rončák, P. (2015). Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods. Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, 45(3), 173-192. 1338-0540.