Slovak Economy to Grow Only Slowly in 2026
The Slovak economy is expected to grow only modestly in 2026, according to the latest macroeconomic forecast by the Institute of Economic Research of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SAS), which assesses economic developments up to 2030.
According to SAS analysts, gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow by approximately 0.5% in 2026, significantly slower than in previous years. Economic performance will be constrained mainly by weaker external demand, fiscal consolidation, and continued global economic uncertainty.
“Inflation is expected to be around 4% in 2026. Price growth will be driven primarily by fiscal consolidation measures and rising business costs. As a result, real wage growth will remain moderate,” says analyst Tomáš Miklošovič from the Institute of Economic Research SAS.
A key factor influencing economic growth will be the absorption of European funds, particularly from the Recovery and Resilience Plan and the new EU programming period. According to the analysts, weaker utilisation of these resources could significantly slow economic growth.
“A recovery is expected in 2027, when GDP growth could reach around 1.3%. This should be supported by a gradual improvement in external demand, increased public spending across the European Union, and the launch of new production capacity at Volvo’s plant in Slovakia,” explains Tomáš Miklošovič.
The labour market will also face demographic challenges. The unemployment rate could rise to approximately 5.8-5.9% in the coming years, while labour shortages and an ageing population will limit long-term growth potential.
According to the forecast, Slovakia may record the lowest economic growth in 2026 among the V4 countries and Austria. Without structural reforms, Slovakia’s convergence with more advanced EU economies could also slow.
In the medium term, analysts expect the economy to stabilise. Between 2028 and 2030, economic growth could reach approximately 2% per year.
More information in the full report
Prepared by: Jozef Bednár
Photo: canva.com