Bivariate joint probability analysis of flood hazard at river confluence

Year, pages: 2020, 29 - 38

Assessing the statistical significance of floods in the complex hydrological conditions that exist at the confluence of the main river and its tributaries, as well as the choice of hydrological design parameters for flood protection in these areas is one of the main tasks in the current hydrology. The main aim of this paper is a joint bivariate frequency analysis of annual peak discharges and synchronously occurred maximum discharges at the main river and its tributary. The annual maximum and daily maximum discharges of the Morava River, as main river, and its tributary Myjava River were analysed. We selected the most appropriate copula function for our bivariate analysis. Selected copulas were used to illustrate the joint occurrence probabilities and joint return periods of the discharge pairs and consequently to determine the joint probabilities of measured discharges. Results of such analyses provide comprehensive information about flood situations where a devastating effect may be increased in the case were floods occur at the same time on the main river and its tributary. And at the same time, the results obtained by the bivariate analysis of the variables which characterize the hydrological regime can contribute to a more reliable assessment of the flood risks.

Bačová Mitková, V. 2020. Bivariate joint probability analysis of flood hazard at river confluence. In Acta Hydrologica Slovaca, vol. 21, no.1, pp. 29-38. 2644-4690. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31577/ahs-2020-0021.01.0004

Bačová Mitková, V. (2020). Bivariate joint probability analysis of flood hazard at river confluence. Acta Hydrologica Slovaca, 21(1), 29-38. 2644-4690. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31577/ahs-2020-0021.01.0004

Publisher: Institute of Hydrology SAS, Dúbravská cesta 9, 841 05 Bratislava, Slovakia

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