Institute of Economic Research
Spatial dimension of external macroeconomic imbalances and their predictability
Name of the supervisor
Ing. Mária Širaňová, MA., PhD.
Faculty of National Economy
The problem of creation of external macroeconomic imbalances and their prediction is at the heart of the EU economic policy within the existing Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure. At the same time, the degree of interconnectedness of international financial flows is proving to be one of the key factors that poses a potential risk of creating and deepening external imbalances leading to financial crises. However, the current concepts of defining and measuring external macroeconomic imbalances do not include this element, although the role of the spatial effects of interconnected financial flows is often a topic of discussion in this context. The dissertation thesis will thus focus on the creation of a conceptual framework for the inclusion of the spatial effects of international financial flows into the existing definitions of external macroeconomic imbalances. At the same time, the possibility of predicting the creation and deepening of macroeconomic imbalances defined in this way will be analyzed in the context of constructing an effective early warning system. As far as the methodology is concerned, the work will be based on standard procedures (signal method, probability models, BMA, creation of regression trees), as well as new potential approaches based on machine learning.