Electronic Library of Scientific Literature
Electronic Library of Scientific Literature
Volume 44 / No. 2 / 1996
Ivan OKÁLI - Herta GABRIELOVÁ - Egon HLAVATÝ - Richard OUTRATA
Basic information about the economic development of Slovakia within
the independent Slovak Republic is illustrated in Table 1 (p. 83).
The economic recovery which continued in 1995 from 1994 developments was
reflected in the production-output and monetary figures. Adopting a reasonable
anti-inflation monetary and fiscal policy has added greatly to a sound
market balance both internally and externally within a generally favourable,
even improving framework. Activities of majority of enterprises which have
already been adapted to the market economy conditions took the opportunity
of the strengthening market balance for improving the balance between capacities
and their better utilization in performance and (in 1995) in employment
as well.
Current figures showing the economic recovery allow for positive evaluation,
however, prudence is required due to the following reasons.
First, the development from the transformation recession to the recovery
during 1994 and 1995 brought about surprisingly good results, but the performance
of the economy still lags behind the pre-reform level.
Second, there is no certainty that the positive turn in the economic recovery
trend will last long or that the growth supports sufficiently a smooth
development and that it is strong enough to overcome the risks of its own
future development.
Acceleration of economic growth in 1995 in comparison to 1994 was achieved
mainly due to the fact that a rise in exports and its income effects started
to contribute to a much more favourable development of the major components
of domestic demand, i.e. in the growing households' consumption and gross
capital formation. However, the favourable development in domestic demand
in 1995 was but partly autonomous within the small and rather open Slovak
economy. In greater part it was induced by the growth in external demand.
On basis of this, it is assumed that within the impact of demand factors
on GDP development, the external demand trends of the impact performed
on global demand through the export and imports sides of foreign trade,
will prevail also in 1996. In particular, due to the worsened boom in EU
countries during 1996, but also due to inflation joined with devaluation
of the Slovak crown, even without any further impact (e.g. without potential
weakening of anti-import measures) it can be assumed further slowdown in
export growth and faster import growth. In 1996, these trends in foreign
trade development will slowdown the rate of Slovak economy performance.
The rate of economic growth (GDP growth) envisaged for 1996 together with
prognosis of other indicators of economic development are illustrated in
Table 2 (p. 113).
Richard OUTRATA
Foreign trade of the SR, particularly after division of Czechoslovakia
by January 1, 1993, represent a very important factor of the economic growth.
Exports in 1994 achieved up to 51 % (in 1995 even 49.7 %) of GDP, with
imports taking roughly the same share of GDP. This relatively great openness
of the Slovak economy results to very sensitive reaction of the economy
to all deviations in foreign trade, and through foreign trade it reacts
equally sensitively to the world trade development and to the world economy
as a whole.
At the same time the foreign trade is also an important tool and a form
of international division of labour, and of integration processes. In this
context the foreign trade is a certain reflection of the economy structure
in general and its ability to penetrate itself into the world economy.
Foreign trade is, on the other side, a certain carrier of transmission
of impulses from the world economy for internal structural adaptation of
economy and its effective re-incorporation into the international division
of labour.
Just the process of structural adaptation, seen at the background of overall
dynamics and commodity and territorial foreign trade structure represents
for effective entry of the Slovak economy into integration process one
of key problems of the further positive economic development of Slovakia.
No matter how important overall development trends of the Slovak foreign
trade are, from the point of view of integration processes and creation
a new profile of international division of labour the problem of Slovak
foreign trade relations development is temporarily focussed first of all
at the European Union.
Slovak Republic has signed the European agreement upon the association
and gradual creation of the free trade zone. It seems, that above all smaller
economic developed countries of the EU might be serve as a certain criterion
for the evaluation of Slovakia chances to become an integrating partner
of the European Union, either from the overall economic level point of
view, or from the view point of structural parameters of economy.
Thus we assume, that in the small economies, such as the Slovak economy
is, it is correct and necessary to recognize the importance of foreign
trade relations, and to study them at two levels listed already. It is
important to deal with foreign trade relations not only from the point
of view of sensibility of the economy to the external demand, but also
from the point of view of active ambition to become an effective and profitable
partner for international cooperation development with the effect of economies
of scale and competitiveness growth within the whole integrated space.
That is conditioned by acceptance of inescapability of structural adaptation
of Slovak economy aiming at the competitiveness increase on the basic of
structural approximation to small west economies too.
Egon HLAVATÝ
This article concentrates on the key problems of managing state's debt
in the Slovak Republic. It is derived from the theoretical and methodological
study prepared for research project ACE-PHARE concerning questions of state's
debt in the epoch of transformation of the economy. Consequently it takes
into account specific conditions present in the Slovak Republic.
On the basis of the analysis pertaining to the development of indebtedness
of the Slovak Republic, from the beginning of its existence and in comparison
with other countries of CEFTA, the study claims that the internal and external
debt in the Slovak Republic has not reached critical level. This came about
mainly from the relatively positive situation which was created by the
division of state debt's obligations of the former Czech and Slovak Federated
Republic, as well as obligations toward certain countries of former Council
for Mutual Economic Assistance. Hence, the burden of management and the
development of state's debt does not consist in the management ex post,
i.e., straightening of formerly acquired obligations, but in maintaining
the initial position during the renewal and further development of the
economy. Thus the fundamental problem is the management of the long-term
development ex ante, which essentially means to include in the debt policy
stability and maintenance of existing debt position. The goal here is to
secure the stability of the economy, namely, the renewal of economic growth
by maintaining the original long-term state of indebtedness (relationship
between the balance of payment deficit and Gross Domestic Product) and
an optimum increase of expenditures of service debt from the perspective
of the increase of balance of payments and the increase of income of the
state budget.
In the long-term strategy, this will amount mainly to gradual lowering
of the amount of debt with the increase of GDP. Along with this, the key
question pertaining to the management of debt policy consists in securing
ongoing solvency of the state in regard to international and domestic economy.
in the article are formulated in greater detail various approaches toward
the management of state debt ex ante, the determinants of solvency of the
state within the realm of debt policy, as well as the instruments and the
care of economic policy given to the rational management of state debt.
In spite of the fact that the development of the state debt in the Slovak
Republic takes place in specific situation, the mentioned solutions create
opportunities also for more general conclusions of debt strategy ex ante
in the conditions of the transformation.
Eduard MIKELKA - Milota ŠUJANOVÁ
This study represents the first relatively consistent attempt to draw
possible scenarios of the Slovak economy until the year 2005 and to formulate
and quantity a preconditions for reaching them. The economic growth scenarios
use the following average annual GDP increase (in rough values): 3 per
cent, 6 per cent and 9 per cent. To re-counting of these forecast scenarios
we have used experimental econometric model developed especially for this
purpose.
Of course, in current significant changes in development of the Slovak
economy each model for practical use in quantifying of its long term development
must contain several simplification and ex-ante preconditions, which must
be gradually clarified. This is the reason why the result presented in
the study must be considered as the first approximation of given goals.
A long-term forecast must be based, on the one hand, on analysis of the
current states of an economy and its developments tendencies and, on the
other hand, on a given strategic goals, having in mind real conditions
for reading the goals. Current state and development of the Slovak Republic
had been analyzed in another studies.
Based on given information, it is evident that in the case of 3 per cent
GDP growth rate in Slovakia (i.e. GDP per capita growth by roughly 2.8
per cent) such growth rate would not be able, for decades, to guarantee
push Slovakia ahead, to catch up on the less developed EU states group.
But in the case of GDP's 6 per cent growth rate approximately in the year
2005 an average of Greece and Portugal could be reached and, at the same
time, Slovakia would reach roughly 57 per cent of the EU average level
(in comparison with current 40 per cent of that level). A GDP growth about
9 per cent would lead to reaching these results in the year 2000 which
would give a better chances for Slovakia to be EU member at the very beginning
of the 21st millenium.